The Battleground Contests for 2010

Rand Paul had this to say after winning the Kentucky primary race for US Senate.

I have a message, a message from the Tea Party, a message that is loud and clear and does not mince words: We’ve come to take our government back.

Barney Frank said this recently to an audience of young democrats.

You can reach out to your fellow young people and make it clear to them, that when they may not be satisfied with everything we’ve done — we’re not satisfied with everything we’ve done. The way to cure that is to give us more authority and more ability.

Those two sound bites illustrate the divide between the Washington federal government establishment and We the People. There is a war that is very much like the war between the states this country had around 150 years ago. Only this time the rebels are in the establishment in Washington DC trying to transform our nation into something that it never was and was never intended. We the People are for preserving the Union of a representative republic with all the written constitutional limits and checks observed and respected. We did not fire on the fort, but Obama and his minions did by grabbing so much power that was never intended for them to hold. Wars are made up of battles, and the intent of this diary is to project a battle plan and where the battles are going to take place to win back a majority of Governor seats US House seats, and US Senate seats. I rely very much on Real Clear Politics to project in which congressional districts and states the battles are going to take place. For a battle plan I refer to two Civil War Generals, Stonewall Jackson and William T. Sherman. General Jackson earned the nickname Stonewall for holding the line so fiercely that it was like the enemy had just ran into a stone wall. The GOP needs to hold the line and win all the seats that are considered safe GOP, likely GOP, and leans GOP. The rest of the battle plan has to do with the seats that are considered toss-ups, and the GOP must run the table and rout all of these toss-up seats like General Sherman’s march thru Atlanta to the sea.

I would have liked to put up a picture of all the warriors the GOP has selected to direct the battles in all of these toss-up races much like this one, but I could not do it because a, I lack teh photoshop skilz and b, there are still contested primaries to determine who they will be.

Governors

Current Governors: The Ds have 9 safe or not up, 2 likely D, 5 leans D for a total of 16. The Rs have 12 safe or not up, 6 likely R, and 6 leans R for a total of 24. There are 9 toss-ups and 1 seat projected to independent former R Linc Chafee. If the battle plans work after the 2010 election there will be 33 Republican Governors, 16 Democrat Governors, and 1 independent. Winning is important for the 2012 election especially in states with large electoral votes.

The Nine Toss-up Governor Contests
Illinois (21 EVs)

Bill Brady

Ohio (20 EVs)

John Kasich

Arizona (10 EVs)
Minnesota (10 EVs)
Wisconsin (10 EVs)
Colorado (9 EVs)
Oregon (7 EVs)

Chris Dudley

New Mexico (5 EVs)

Susana Martinez

Vermont (3 EVs)

Brian Dubie

US House

Current House:255 Democrats | 177 Republicans | 3 Vacancies
The Ds have 150 safe seats, 24 likely D seats, and 27 leans D seats for a total of 201. The Rs have 165 safe seats, 10 likely R seats, and 24 leans R seats for a total of 199. There are 35 toss-ups. If the battle plans work after the 2010 election there will be 234 R seats and 201 D seats. New York is the state with the most toss-ups, and it is not known for having conservative Republicans. This just shows how one can not have control over where a battle takes place.

The 35 Toss-up US House Contests
NY-01
NY-13
NY-19
NY-23
NY-24
FL-02
FL-08
FL-22
FL-24
OH-13 Tom Ganley

OH-16 Jim Renacci

OH-18 Bob Gibbs

PA-03 Mike Kelly

PA-08 Mike Fitzpatrick

PA-12 Tim Burns

VA-02 Scott Rigell

VA-09 Morgan Griffith

VA-11 Keith Fimian

AZ-05
AZ-08
IL-10 Bob Dold

IL-11 Adam Kinzinger

AL-02
AR-01 Rick Crawford

CA-11 David Harmer

IA-03 Brad Zaun

ID-01 Raul Labrador

IN-09 Todd Young

MA-10
MO-04
SC-05 Mick Mulvaney

SD-AL Kristi Noem

WA-03
WI-07
WV-01 David McKinley

US Senate

Current Senate: 59* Democrats | 41 Republicans
The Ds have 45 safe or not up, 2 likely D, and 3 leans D for a total of 50. The Rs have 33 safe or not up, 5 likely R, and 4 leans R for a total of 42. Following the battle plans used for the Governor seats and the US House seats is not good enough to take the Rs to 51 and the Ds down to 49. We need to borrow from an earlier conflict and have an unexpected victory like the one George Washington had crossing the Delaware on Christmas night to achieve a victory over the surprised mercenary Hessians. With this in mind I will list the 2 likely D and 3 leans D with the 8 toss-up contests in the US Senate.

The 8 Senate Toss-up Contests

Pennsylvania Pat Toomey

Ohio Rob Portman

Florida Marco Rubio

Nevada Sharron Angle

Illinois Mark Kirk

Colorado
Missouri
Washington
The 2 Senate Leans D Contests
California Carly Fiorina

Wisconsin

The 3 Senate Likely D Contests
Oregon Jim Huffman

Connecticut
New York

I have tried to provide a map of the battleground contests for Governor, US House, and US Senate in 2010. I hope the directors of this conservative and Republican website will consider endorsing some of these candidates. I hope bloggers will write to promote these candidates, defend these candidates from the attacks, and mock their opponents when the opportunity arises. These are the basic meat and potatoes contests that we need to win, and if we can win in other contests that are projected for a D win, then that will just be gravy for us. We can’t be sitting out the election because the perfect candidate is not on the ballot, because we are never going to have the perfect candidate. So let’s go to war. We have got about 140 days until Tuesday, November 3, 2010. Let’s Roll!

cross-posted at RedState