Updated: #NVSen-Heller Leads Embattled Congresswoman Shelley Berkley (D) by Five Points, 44% to 39%.

Updated: #NVSen-Heller Leads Embattled Congresswoman Shelley Berkley (D) by Five Points, 44% to 39%.

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After the DNC and Embattled Congresswoman Shelley Berkley have spent the last week or so carrying on about how their “internal polling” showed the race tied in NV. A new poll by SurveyUSA shows what we all knew to be true… Dean Heller is leading by five percentage points:

Taegan Goddered posted on Political Wire:

Heller Leads in Nevada Senate Race

A new SurveyUSA poll in Nevada finds Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) leading challenger Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) by five points, 44% to 39%.

Unfortunately the SurveyUSA link in Taegan’s blurb was bad so I’ll update you all tomorrow with the details and the full poll.

Update:

As promised, here are the full poll details from the Las Vegas Review Journal:

AUGUST 2012 POLLS


In the election for United States Senator, if you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote for (choices rotated) Dean Heller, the Republican? Shelley Berkley, the Democrat? Or some other candidate?

(869 Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.4%)

All Gender Age Race
Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/
Other
Dean Heller (R) 44% 50% 37% 42% 41% 45% 51% 42% 47% 50% 8% 47% 33%
Shelley Berkley (D) 39% 36% 43% 35% 40% 43% 37% 38% 41% 35% 75% 37% 39%
Other 9% 6% 11% 9% 9% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8% 4% 7% 18%
Undecided 8% 7% 9% 13% 11% 4% 3% 12% 3% 7% 13% 9% 10%
Likely Voters 100% 52% 48% 25% 28% 28% 19% 53% 47% 62% 8% 19% 11%

 

Phone Presidential Vote Senate Vote Party Affiliation Tea Party Member
Cell Landline Romney Obama Heller Berkley Rep Dem Ind Yes No
Dean Heller (R) 35% 47% 87% 7% 100% 0% 77% 15% 44% 85% 40%
Shelley Berkley (D) 34% 41% 3% 76% 0% 100% 10% 69% 35% 11% 42%
Other 7% 9% 7% 7% 0% 0% 8% 7% 11% 5% 9%
Undecided 24% 4% 3% 10% 0% 0% 5% 10% 9% 0% 9%
Likely Voters 21% 79% 45% 47% 44% 39% 36% 39% 23% 8% 90%

 

Ideology Education Income Region
Cons Mod Lib HS Some
College
College <$40K $40K-
$80K
>$80K Las Vegas Rest of
Clark Co.
Washoe
Co.
Rest of
Nev.
Dean Heller (R) 78% 35% 10% 34% 44% 49% 36% 43% 55% 44% 37% 53% 64%
Shelley Berkley (D) 12% 49% 71% 42% 37% 40% 42% 39% 36% 45% 44% 32% 20%
Other 6% 7% 12% 15% 7% 7% 12% 8% 5% 7% 7% 11% 12%
Undecided 3% 9% 7% 9% 12% 3% 11% 9% 4% 4% 12% 4% 3%
Likely Voters 33% 39% 16% 18% 41% 41% 30% 38% 32% 22% 50% 15% 13%

Do you cast this vote enthusiastically? Or with reservations?

(799 Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.1%)

All Gender Age Race
Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/
Other
Enthusiastically 73% 78% 67% 65% 76% 76% 75% 71% 76% 73% 73% 71% 79%
With Reservations 23% 19% 27% 29% 19% 22% 21% 23% 22% 23% 26% 24% 16%
Not Sure 4% 3% 5% 7% 5% 2% 4% 6% 3% 4% 1% 5% 5%
Likely Voters 100% 53% 47% 24% 27% 29% 20% 51% 49% 63% 8% 19% 10%

 

Phone Presidential Vote Senate Vote Party Affiliation Tea Party Member
Cell Landline Romney Obama Heller Berkley Rep Dem Ind Yes No
Enthusiastically 56% 77% 79% 71% 78% 75% 75% 74% 71% 87% 72%
With Reservations 33% 20% 17% 24% 18% 22% 21% 22% 26% 11% 24%
Not Sure 11% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 4% 4% 2% 4%
Likely Voters 17% 83% 47% 46% 48% 43% 37% 39% 23% 8% 89%

 

Ideology Education Income Region
Cons Mod Lib HS Some
College
College <$40K $40K-
$80K
>$80K Las Vegas Rest of
Clark Co.
Washoe
Co.
Rest of
Nev.
Enthusiastically 81% 70% 72% 70% 73% 74% 70% 69% 80% 73% 71% 80% 74%
With Reservations 15% 27% 23% 24% 22% 23% 27% 25% 17% 22% 26% 17% 18%
Not Sure 4% 3% 5% 6% 5% 3% 3% 6% 3% 5% 3% 3% 8%
Likely Voters 34% 39% 17% 18% 39% 43% 29% 38% 33% 23% 48% 16% 13%

Is your opinion of Shelley Berkley: Favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no opinion one way or the other?

(869 Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.4%)

All Gender Age Race
Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/
Other
Favorable 29% 27% 30% 20% 32% 32% 31% 26% 32% 26% 61% 23% 30%
Unfavorable 43% 48% 37% 41% 43% 40% 48% 42% 43% 48% 9% 44% 34%
Neutral 22% 21% 24% 32% 18% 20% 18% 25% 19% 20% 21% 28% 25%
No Opinion 6% 4% 9% 7% 6% 8% 3% 7% 6% 6% 9% 4% 12%
Likely Voters 100% 52% 48% 25% 28% 28% 19% 53% 47% 62% 8% 19% 11%

 

Phone Presidential Vote Senate Vote Party Affiliation Tea Party Member
Cell Landline Romney Obama Heller Berkley Rep Dem Ind Yes No
Favorable 21% 31% 3% 55% 1% 71% 8% 53% 22% 5% 31%
Unfavorable 35% 45% 75% 13% 79% 3% 67% 19% 46% 82% 39%
Neutral 36% 18% 14% 27% 16% 24% 17% 25% 24% 12% 23%
No Opinion 8% 6% 7% 5% 4% 2% 8% 4% 7% 2% 7%
Likely Voters 21% 79% 45% 47% 44% 39% 36% 39% 23% 8% 90%

 

Ideology Education Income Region
Cons Mod Lib HS Some
College
College <$40K $40K-
$80K
>$80K Las Vegas Rest of
Clark Co.
Washoe
Co.
Rest of
Nev.
Favorable 9% 35% 55% 28% 27% 31% 30% 28% 28% 34% 31% 22% 17%
Unfavorable 66% 37% 21% 28% 42% 50% 34% 42% 53% 41% 35% 61% 54%
Neutral 20% 24% 20% 30% 24% 16% 25% 26% 14% 19% 26% 15% 19%
No Opinion 6% 4% 4% 14% 6% 3% 11% 4% 5% 6% 7% 2% 9%
Likely Voters 33% 39% 16% 18% 41% 41% 30% 38% 32% 22% 50% 15% 13%

Is your opinion of Dean Heller: Favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no opinion one way or the other?

(869 Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.4%

All Gender Age Race
Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/
Other
Favorable 32% 37% 27% 28% 27% 35% 39% 28% 37% 37% 2% 35% 22%
Unfavorable 35% 34% 37% 28% 36% 40% 37% 32% 39% 37% 52% 22% 36%
Neutral 24% 24% 24% 33% 28% 17% 17% 30% 17% 20% 30% 36% 21%
No Opinion 8% 5% 12% 10% 9% 8% 6% 9% 7% 6% 15% 7% 20%
Likely Voters 100% 52% 48% 25% 28% 28% 19% 53% 47% 62% 8% 19% 11%

 

Phone Presidential Vote Senate Vote Party Affiliation Tea Party Member
Cell Landline Romney Obama Heller Berkley Rep Dem Ind Yes No
Favorable 18% 36% 67% 2% 71% 0% 57% 10% 30% 76% 28%
Unfavorable 26% 38% 6% 64% 2% 71% 15% 56% 35% 15% 38%
Neutral 46% 18% 21% 25% 25% 21% 21% 24% 28% 9% 26%
No Opinion 10% 8% 6% 9% 2% 7% 7% 10% 6% 1% 9%
Likely Voters 21% 79% 45% 47% 44% 39% 36% 39% 23% 8% 90%

 

Ideology Education Income Region
Cons Mod Lib HS Some
College
College <$40K $40K-
$80K
>$80K Las Vegas Rest of
Clark Co.
Washoe
Co.
Rest of
Nev.
Favorable 61% 23% 7% 22% 32% 37% 29% 29% 41% 28% 26% 44% 52%
Unfavorable 13% 44% 61% 32% 35% 36% 31% 38% 33% 39% 34% 42% 27%
Neutral 20% 27% 27% 26% 25% 22% 24% 27% 22% 27% 29% 12% 16%
No Opinion 7% 6% 6% 19% 8% 4% 16% 7% 4% 7% 12% 2% 6%
Likely Voters 33% 39% 16% 18% 41% 41% 30% 38% 32% 22% 50% 15% 13%

Are you following news stories about a House Ethics Committee investigation of Shelley Berkley?

(869 Likely Voters.Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.3%)

All Gender Age Race
Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/
Other
Yes 59% 59% 59% 50% 61% 62% 65% 56% 63% 63% 57% 49% 55%
No 34% 35% 33% 44% 34% 31% 26% 38% 29% 31% 33% 44% 34%
Not Sure 7% 6% 9% 6% 6% 8% 10% 6% 9% 6% 10% 7% 12%
Likely Voters 100% 52% 48% 25% 28% 28% 19% 53% 47% 62% 8% 19% 11%

 

Phone Presidential Vote Senate Vote Party Affiliation Tea Party Member
Cell Landline Romney Obama Heller Berkley Rep Dem Ind Yes No
Yes 51% 61% 61% 60% 62% 62% 55% 56% 70% 59% 59%
No 42% 32% 34% 30% 34% 30% 38% 34% 27% 37% 34%
Not Sure 7% 7% 5% 10% 3% 8% 6% 10% 3% 4% 7%
Likely Voters 21% 79% 45% 47% 44% 39% 36% 39% 23% 8% 90%

 

Ideology Education Income Region
Cons Mod Lib HS Some
College
College <$40K $40K-
$80K
>$80K Las Vegas Rest of
Clark Co.
Washoe
Co.
Rest of
Nev.
Yes 59% 60% 66% 47% 53% 70% 56% 57% 64% 61% 57% 69% 51%
No 36% 36% 25% 35% 40% 27% 30% 37% 33% 32% 35% 26% 43%
Not Sure 5% 4% 9% 18% 7% 3% 14% 6% 2% 7% 8% 6% 7%
Likely Voters 33% 39% 16% 18% 41% 41% 30% 38% 32% 22% 50% 15% 13%

Does the House Ethics Committee investigation make more likely to vote for Shelley Berkley? More likely to vote for Dean Heller? Or does it not influence your vote one way or the other?

(512 Following Stories. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%)

All Gender Age Race
Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ 18-49 50+ White Black Hispanic Asian/
Other
More Likely To Vote For Berkley 14% 15% 14% 14% 9% 14% 23% 11% 18% 13% 38% 11% 10%
More Likely To Vote For Heller 42% 46% 38% 48% 40% 40% 40% 43% 40% 45% 15% 50% 29%
Does Not Influence Your Vote 40% 38% 42% 33% 42% 45% 36% 38% 42% 40% 36% 36% 52%
Not Sure 4% 1% 7% 4% 9% 1% 0% 7% 1% 3% 11% 3% 9%
Following Stories 100% 53% 47% 22% 29% 29% 21% 50% 50% 66% 8% 16% 10%

 

Phone Presidential Vote Senate Vote Party Affiliation Tea Party Member
Cell Landline Romney Obama Heller Berkley Rep Dem Ind Yes No
More Likely To Vote For Berkley 10% 15% 1% 28% 0% 34% 3% 28% 11% 5% 15%
More Likely To Vote For Heller 45% 41% 74% 12% 80% 3% 73% 18% 36% 63% 40%
Does Not Influence Your Vote 31% 42% 24% 53% 20% 56% 24% 47% 49% 32% 41%
Not Sure 13% 2% 0% 7% 0% 6% 0% 8% 4% 0% 4%
Following Stories 18% 82% 46% 47% 47% 41% 34% 37% 27% 7% 90%

 

Ideology Education Income Region
Cons Mod Lib HS Some
College
College <$40K $40K-
$80K
>$80K Las Vegas Rest of
Clark Co.
Washoe
Co.
Rest of
Nev.
More Likely To Vote For Berkley 5% 17% 24% 20% 11% 14% 19% 13% 9% 14% 17% 11% 8%
More Likely To Vote For Heller 69% 32% 19% 38% 45% 41% 37% 38% 52% 40% 38% 50% 50%
Does Not Influence Your Vote 25% 49% 47% 38% 42% 39% 41% 44% 34% 45% 38% 38% 40%
Not Sure 1% 1% 10% 3% 2% 5% 3% 4% 5% 1% 7% 1% 1%
Following Stories 33% 40% 18% 14% 37% 48% 28% 37% 35% 23% 48% 18% 11%

Research conducted bilingually, in English and in Spanish; cell-phone and home-phone respondents.

SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults from the state of Nevada 08/16/12 through 08/21/12. Of the adults, 985 were registered to vote in Nevada. Of the registered voters, 869 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election for President of the United States.

This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Telephone respondents in portions of Nevada with concentrations of Spanish speakers were offered the option to take the survey in their choice of Spanish or English.

Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device. 80% of the interviews for this survey were completed before comments about rape and pregnancy took center stage in the presidential election.

About the Poll

This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. The pollster’s report includes the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted, the number of respondents who answered each question and the theoretical margin of sampling error for each question. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. In theory, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with home telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than sampling error. These include: the difficulty of interviewing respondents who do not have a home telephone; the refusal by some with home telephones to be interviewed; the order in which questions are asked; the wording of questions; the way and extent to which data are weighted; and the manner in which specialized populations, such as likely voters, are determined. It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these and other factors. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.