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Updated: #NVSen-Heller Leads Embattled Congresswoman Shelley Berkley (D) by Five Points, 44% to 39%.
After the DNC and Embattled Congresswoman Shelley Berkley have spent the last week or so carrying on about how their “internal polling” showed the race tied in NV. A new poll by SurveyUSA shows what we all knew to be true… Dean Heller is leading by five percentage points:
Taegan Goddered posted on Political Wire:
Heller Leads in Nevada Senate Race
A new SurveyUSA poll in Nevada finds Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) leading challenger Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) by five points, 44% to 39%.
Unfortunately the SurveyUSA link in Taegan’s blurb was bad so I’ll update you all tomorrow with the details and the full poll.
Update:
As promised, here are the full poll details from the Las Vegas Review Journal:
AUGUST 2012 POLLS
In the election for United States Senator, if you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote for (choices rotated) Dean Heller, the Republican? Shelley Berkley, the Democrat? Or some other candidate?
(869 Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.4%)
| All | Gender | Age | Race | ||||||||||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/ Other |
||
| Dean Heller (R) | 44% | 50% | 37% | 42% | 41% | 45% | 51% | 42% | 47% | 50% | 8% | 47% | 33% |
| Shelley Berkley (D) | 39% | 36% | 43% | 35% | 40% | 43% | 37% | 38% | 41% | 35% | 75% | 37% | 39% |
| Other | 9% | 6% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 18% |
| Undecided | 8% | 7% | 9% | 13% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 12% | 3% | 7% | 13% | 9% | 10% |
| Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 19% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 11% |
| Phone | Presidential Vote | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | |||||||
| Cell | Landline | Romney | Obama | Heller | Berkley | Rep | Dem | Ind | Yes | No | |
| Dean Heller (R) | 35% | 47% | 87% | 7% | 100% | 0% | 77% | 15% | 44% | 85% | 40% |
| Shelley Berkley (D) | 34% | 41% | 3% | 76% | 0% | 100% | 10% | 69% | 35% | 11% | 42% |
| Other | 7% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 5% | 9% |
| Undecided | 24% | 4% | 3% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 10% | 9% | 0% | 9% |
| Likely Voters | 21% | 79% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 90% |
| Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||
| Cons | Mod | Lib | HS | Some College |
College | <$40K | $40K- $80K |
>$80K | Las Vegas | Rest of Clark Co. |
Washoe Co. |
Rest of Nev. |
|||
| Dean Heller (R) | 78% | 35% | 10% | 34% | 44% | 49% | 36% | 43% | 55% | 44% | 37% | 53% | 64% | ||
| Shelley Berkley (D) | 12% | 49% | 71% | 42% | 37% | 40% | 42% | 39% | 36% | 45% | 44% | 32% | 20% | ||
| Other | 6% | 7% | 12% | 15% | 7% | 7% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 7% | 7% | 11% | 12% | ||
| Undecided | 3% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 3% | 11% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 12% | 4% | 3% | ||
| Likely Voters | 33% | 39% | 16% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 50% | 15% | 13% | ||
Do you cast this vote enthusiastically? Or with reservations?
(799 Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.1%)
| All | Gender | Age | Race | ||||||||||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/ Other |
||
| Enthusiastically | 73% | 78% | 67% | 65% | 76% | 76% | 75% | 71% | 76% | 73% | 73% | 71% | 79% |
| With Reservations | 23% | 19% | 27% | 29% | 19% | 22% | 21% | 23% | 22% | 23% | 26% | 24% | 16% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 5% |
| Likely Voters | 100% | 53% | 47% | 24% | 27% | 29% | 20% | 51% | 49% | 63% | 8% | 19% | 10% |
| Phone | Presidential Vote | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | |||||||
| Cell | Landline | Romney | Obama | Heller | Berkley | Rep | Dem | Ind | Yes | No | |
| Enthusiastically | 56% | 77% | 79% | 71% | 78% | 75% | 75% | 74% | 71% | 87% | 72% |
| With Reservations | 33% | 20% | 17% | 24% | 18% | 22% | 21% | 22% | 26% | 11% | 24% |
| Not Sure | 11% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% |
| Likely Voters | 17% | 83% | 47% | 46% | 48% | 43% | 37% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 89% |
| Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||
| Cons | Mod | Lib | HS | Some College |
College | <$40K | $40K- $80K |
>$80K | Las Vegas | Rest of Clark Co. |
Washoe Co. |
Rest of Nev. |
|||
| Enthusiastically | 81% | 70% | 72% | 70% | 73% | 74% | 70% | 69% | 80% | 73% | 71% | 80% | 74% | ||
| With Reservations | 15% | 27% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 23% | 27% | 25% | 17% | 22% | 26% | 17% | 18% | ||
| Not Sure | 4% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 8% | ||
| Likely Voters | 34% | 39% | 17% | 18% | 39% | 43% | 29% | 38% | 33% | 23% | 48% | 16% | 13% | ||
Is your opinion of Shelley Berkley: Favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no opinion one way or the other?
(869 Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.4%)
| All | Gender | Age | Race | ||||||||||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/ Other |
||
| Favorable | 29% | 27% | 30% | 20% | 32% | 32% | 31% | 26% | 32% | 26% | 61% | 23% | 30% |
| Unfavorable | 43% | 48% | 37% | 41% | 43% | 40% | 48% | 42% | 43% | 48% | 9% | 44% | 34% |
| Neutral | 22% | 21% | 24% | 32% | 18% | 20% | 18% | 25% | 19% | 20% | 21% | 28% | 25% |
| No Opinion | 6% | 4% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 9% | 4% | 12% |
| Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 19% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 11% |
| Phone | Presidential Vote | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | |||||||
| Cell | Landline | Romney | Obama | Heller | Berkley | Rep | Dem | Ind | Yes | No | |
| Favorable | 21% | 31% | 3% | 55% | 1% | 71% | 8% | 53% | 22% | 5% | 31% |
| Unfavorable | 35% | 45% | 75% | 13% | 79% | 3% | 67% | 19% | 46% | 82% | 39% |
| Neutral | 36% | 18% | 14% | 27% | 16% | 24% | 17% | 25% | 24% | 12% | 23% |
| No Opinion | 8% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 7% |
| Likely Voters | 21% | 79% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 90% |
| Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||||
| Cons | Mod | Lib | HS | Some College |
College | <$40K | $40K- $80K |
>$80K | Las Vegas | Rest of Clark Co. |
Washoe Co. |
Rest of Nev. |
|||
| Favorable | 9% | 35% | 55% | 28% | 27% | 31% | 30% | 28% | 28% | 34% | 31% | 22% | 17% | ||
| Unfavorable | 66% | 37% | 21% | 28% | 42% | 50% | 34% | 42% | 53% | 41% | 35% | 61% | 54% | ||
| Neutral | 20% | 24% | 20% | 30% | 24% | 16% | 25% | 26% | 14% | 19% | 26% | 15% | 19% | ||
| No Opinion | 6% | 4% | 4% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 11% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 9% | ||
| Likely Voters | 33% | 39% | 16% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 50% | 15% | 13% | ||
Is your opinion of Dean Heller: Favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or do you have no opinion one way or the other?
(869 Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.4%
| All | Gender | Age | Race | ||||||||||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/ Other |
||
| Favorable | 32% | 37% | 27% | 28% | 27% | 35% | 39% | 28% | 37% | 37% | 2% | 35% | 22% |
| Unfavorable | 35% | 34% | 37% | 28% | 36% | 40% | 37% | 32% | 39% | 37% | 52% | 22% | 36% |
| Neutral | 24% | 24% | 24% | 33% | 28% | 17% | 17% | 30% | 17% | 20% | 30% | 36% | 21% |
| No Opinion | 8% | 5% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 15% | 7% | 20% |
| Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 19% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 11% |
| Phone | Presidential Vote | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | |||||||
| Cell | Landline | Romney | Obama | Heller | Berkley | Rep | Dem | Ind | Yes | No | |
| Favorable | 18% | 36% | 67% | 2% | 71% | 0% | 57% | 10% | 30% | 76% | 28% |
| Unfavorable | 26% | 38% | 6% | 64% | 2% | 71% | 15% | 56% | 35% | 15% | 38% |
| Neutral | 46% | 18% | 21% | 25% | 25% | 21% | 21% | 24% | 28% | 9% | 26% |
| No Opinion | 10% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 2% | 7% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 1% | 9% |
| Likely Voters | 21% | 79% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 90% |
| Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||
| Cons | Mod | Lib | HS | Some College |
College | <$40K | $40K- $80K |
>$80K | Las Vegas | Rest of Clark Co. |
Washoe Co. |
Rest of Nev. |
|
| Favorable | 61% | 23% | 7% | 22% | 32% | 37% | 29% | 29% | 41% | 28% | 26% | 44% | 52% |
| Unfavorable | 13% | 44% | 61% | 32% | 35% | 36% | 31% | 38% | 33% | 39% | 34% | 42% | 27% |
| Neutral | 20% | 27% | 27% | 26% | 25% | 22% | 24% | 27% | 22% | 27% | 29% | 12% | 16% |
| No Opinion | 7% | 6% | 6% | 19% | 8% | 4% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 12% | 2% | 6% |
| Likely Voters | 33% | 39% | 16% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 50% | 15% | 13% |
Are you following news stories about a House Ethics Committee investigation of Shelley Berkley?
(869 Likely Voters.Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.3%)
| All | Gender | Age | Race | ||||||||||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/ Other |
||
| Yes | 59% | 59% | 59% | 50% | 61% | 62% | 65% | 56% | 63% | 63% | 57% | 49% | 55% |
| No | 34% | 35% | 33% | 44% | 34% | 31% | 26% | 38% | 29% | 31% | 33% | 44% | 34% |
| Not Sure | 7% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 12% |
| Likely Voters | 100% | 52% | 48% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 19% | 53% | 47% | 62% | 8% | 19% | 11% |
| Phone | Presidential Vote | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | |||||||
| Cell | Landline | Romney | Obama | Heller | Berkley | Rep | Dem | Ind | Yes | No | |
| Yes | 51% | 61% | 61% | 60% | 62% | 62% | 55% | 56% | 70% | 59% | 59% |
| No | 42% | 32% | 34% | 30% | 34% | 30% | 38% | 34% | 27% | 37% | 34% |
| Not Sure | 7% | 7% | 5% | 10% | 3% | 8% | 6% | 10% | 3% | 4% | 7% |
| Likely Voters | 21% | 79% | 45% | 47% | 44% | 39% | 36% | 39% | 23% | 8% | 90% |
| Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||
| Cons | Mod | Lib | HS | Some College |
College | <$40K | $40K- $80K |
>$80K | Las Vegas | Rest of Clark Co. |
Washoe Co. |
Rest of Nev. |
|
| Yes | 59% | 60% | 66% | 47% | 53% | 70% | 56% | 57% | 64% | 61% | 57% | 69% | 51% |
| No | 36% | 36% | 25% | 35% | 40% | 27% | 30% | 37% | 33% | 32% | 35% | 26% | 43% |
| Not Sure | 5% | 4% | 9% | 18% | 7% | 3% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 7% |
| Likely Voters | 33% | 39% | 16% | 18% | 41% | 41% | 30% | 38% | 32% | 22% | 50% | 15% | 13% |
Does the House Ethics Committee investigation make more likely to vote for Shelley Berkley? More likely to vote for Dean Heller? Or does it not influence your vote one way or the other?
(512 Following Stories. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%)
| All | Gender | Age | Race | ||||||||||
| Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian/ Other |
||
| More Likely To Vote For Berkley | 14% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 9% | 14% | 23% | 11% | 18% | 13% | 38% | 11% | 10% |
| More Likely To Vote For Heller | 42% | 46% | 38% | 48% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 43% | 40% | 45% | 15% | 50% | 29% |
| Does Not Influence Your Vote | 40% | 38% | 42% | 33% | 42% | 45% | 36% | 38% | 42% | 40% | 36% | 36% | 52% |
| Not Sure | 4% | 1% | 7% | 4% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 7% | 1% | 3% | 11% | 3% | 9% |
| Following Stories | 100% | 53% | 47% | 22% | 29% | 29% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 66% | 8% | 16% | 10% |
| Phone | Presidential Vote | Senate Vote | Party Affiliation | Tea Party Member | |||||||
| Cell | Landline | Romney | Obama | Heller | Berkley | Rep | Dem | Ind | Yes | No | |
| More Likely To Vote For Berkley | 10% | 15% | 1% | 28% | 0% | 34% | 3% | 28% | 11% | 5% | 15% |
| More Likely To Vote For Heller | 45% | 41% | 74% | 12% | 80% | 3% | 73% | 18% | 36% | 63% | 40% |
| Does Not Influence Your Vote | 31% | 42% | 24% | 53% | 20% | 56% | 24% | 47% | 49% | 32% | 41% |
| Not Sure | 13% | 2% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 4% |
| Following Stories | 18% | 82% | 46% | 47% | 47% | 41% | 34% | 37% | 27% | 7% | 90% |
| Ideology | Education | Income | Region | ||||||||||
| Cons | Mod | Lib | HS | Some College |
College | <$40K | $40K- $80K |
>$80K | Las Vegas | Rest of Clark Co. |
Washoe Co. |
Rest of Nev. |
|
| More Likely To Vote For Berkley | 5% | 17% | 24% | 20% | 11% | 14% | 19% | 13% | 9% | 14% | 17% | 11% | 8% |
| More Likely To Vote For Heller | 69% | 32% | 19% | 38% | 45% | 41% | 37% | 38% | 52% | 40% | 38% | 50% | 50% |
| Does Not Influence Your Vote | 25% | 49% | 47% | 38% | 42% | 39% | 41% | 44% | 34% | 45% | 38% | 38% | 40% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 1% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 1% | 7% | 1% | 1% |
| Following Stories | 33% | 40% | 18% | 14% | 37% | 48% | 28% | 37% | 35% | 23% | 48% | 18% | 11% |
Research conducted bilingually, in English and in Spanish; cell-phone and home-phone respondents.
SurveyUSA interviewed 1,200 adults from the state of Nevada 08/16/12 through 08/21/12. Of the adults, 985 were registered to vote in Nevada. Of the registered voters, 869 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election for President of the United States.
This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Telephone respondents in portions of Nevada with concentrations of Spanish speakers were offered the option to take the survey in their choice of Spanish or English.
Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of likely voters), were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone or other electronic device. 80% of the interviews for this survey were completed before comments about rape and pregnancy took center stage in the presidential election.
About the Poll
This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. The pollster’s report includes the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted, the number of respondents who answered each question and the theoretical margin of sampling error for each question. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent US Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. In theory, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with home telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than sampling error. These include: the difficulty of interviewing respondents who do not have a home telephone; the refusal by some with home telephones to be interviewed; the order in which questions are asked; the wording of questions; the way and extent to which data are weighted; and the manner in which specialized populations, such as likely voters, are determined. It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these and other factors. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
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