PPP Poll: Obama and Romney Tied in NC, Obama +1 in FL. GOP Convention Has Minimal Effect

It looks like Romney & Ryan need to do a better job at communicating their vision in swing states. Although this is just one poll, by a Democrat polling firm, one would have expected a little bit more of a bounce or reaction coming from swing state voters.

PPP’s newest Florida poll, conducted completely after the Republican convention, finds no change in the Presidential race there. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 48-47, exactly as he did on our last poll of the state five weeks ago.

The Republican convention being held in Tampa appears to have been a wash. 33% of voters say it made them more likely to vote for Republicans, 33% said it made them less likely to vote for Republicans, and 34% said it didn’t make a difference to them either way.

Romney did see a slight bump in his favorability numbers. 49% of voters have a positive opinion of him to 47% with a negative one. That +2 spread is up a net 5 points from late July when his breakdown was 46/49.

The rest of the speakers at the convention seem to have been more of a hit with voters. Condoleezza Rice’s numbers in particular stand out. 66% of voters see her favorably to 22% with a negative opinion. That’s up a net 13 points from our last poll when she was already pretty darn popular at 59/28. Even with Democrats Rice comes in at 47/36. Another star from the convention is Ann Romney. 56% of voters give her good marks to 22% with an unfavorable opinion and she comes close to breaking even with Democrats at 32/39.

Clint Eastwood’s speech may have drawn more attention than anything else that happened at the convention and it didn’t go over particularly well with voters. 36% say they have a favorable opinion of his remarks to 41% with a negative opinion. While Eastwood’s speech didn’t do much to help Romney it doesn’t seem to have hurt his own reputation either. 72% of Floridians have a favorable opinion of him to 11% with a negative one and even with Democrats the spread is 58/20. Those are certainly numbers any politician would die for.

The biggest winner of the convention on the Republican side may have been Marco Rubio. He now has a 51% approval rating with 33% of voters disapproving of him. Those are the best numbers PPP has found for him since he took office. He is pretty universally beloved by GOP voters at 85/11 and even with Democrats he has a 26% approval rating, more crossover support than we usually find for folks these days.

Everyone else who spoke in the 10 PM hour at the convention has better favorability numbers than Mitt Romney. Besides those already mentioned Susana Martinez has a +19 spread at 35/16, Chris Christie has a +9 spread at 41/32, and Paul Ryan has a +7 spread at 47/40.

Obama continues to have his modest lead in Florida because he’s up 51-39 with independents, 63-33 with non-white voters, and 54-40 with voters over 45. Romney’s up 54-42 with whites and 53-44 with folks over 65 but he would need bigger margins with those groups to lead in the state overall.

Other notes from Florida:

-One reason Romney may not get much, if any, of a convention bounce is simply that people don’t think he’s a very good speaker. 58% in Florida say Obama is a better public speaker to 32% for Romney.

-49% of Florida voters think Romney should release 12 years of his tax returns to 41% who think he should not.

-Florida voters oppose the Ryan Plan 44/37 but given the lack of change in the race since Ryan’s selection as Romney’s running mate and the strong advantage the Republican ticket has with seniors that may not be having too much of an impact.

PPP’s pre-Democratic convention North Carolina poll finds the Presidential race in the state all tied up: Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are each at 48%.

Just as we found in Florida, the Republican convention doesn’t seem to be giving Romney much of a bounce. 34% of voters say that the convention made them more likely to support the GOP this year, 33% said it made them less likely to do so, and 33% said it didn’t make a difference to them either way. Romney’s lack of a convention bounce could simply be a product of his not being that good of a public speaker. 56% of North Carolina voters say Obama gives better speeches compared to 35% for Romney.

Although the Presidential race remains a toss up, Mitt Romney has seen some improvement in his image with North Carolinians over the last month. 47% rate him favorably now to 48% with an unfavorable opinion. That’s up a net 7 points from our last poll when he was at a -8 spread with 42% of voters rating him positively and 50% negatively. Obama’s approval rating has barely changed since early August in the state- 48% of voters think he’s doing a good job to 50% who disapprove of him. Romney and Obama are both slightly under water in their favorability/approval numbers.

Obama’s areas of strength are pretty predictable. He’s up 51-44 with women, 83-15 with non-white voters, and 50-45 with folks under 65. Romney is up 52-44 with men, 60-35 with white voters, and 58-39 with seniors. That wide generational gap is particularly telling- North Carolina might be a swing state for a long time moving forward. Romney’s overcoming the Democratic registration advantage in the state thanks to a 51-40 advantage with independents.

As we found in Florida the biggest stars of the Republican convention were Condoleezza Rice who has a 62/25 favorability rating and Ann Romney who comes in at 54/26. Rice is at 44/40 even with Democrats. Clint Eastwood’s speech didn’t go over well with North Carolina voters- 36% have a favorable opinion of it to 44% with a negative one. But his overall image is fine with 71% of voters giving him positive marks to 14% with an unfavorable opinion. He’s at 58/24 with Democrats.

Everyone who spoke in the primetime hour at the convention last week has positive favorability numbers in North Carolina except Mitt Romney. Beyond those already mentioned Marco Rubio comes in at a +17 spread (42/25), Susana Martinez at +16 (32/16), Chris Christie at +8 (41/33), and Paul Ryan at +4 (46/42).

Other notes from North Carolina:

-51% of voters think Romney should release 12 years of his tax returns, to 40% who think he should not.

-47% of voters oppose the Ryan Plan to 41% in support of it. Again though, given the huge advantage for the Romney/Ryan ticket with seniors I’m not sure that’s having much of an impact on the overall numbers.