Europe took August off. Today, it is America’s turn, as the country celebrates Labor day, although judging by recent trends in the new ‘Part-time” normal, a phenomenon we have been writing about for years, and which even the NYT has finally latched on to, it would appear the holiday should really be Labor Half-Day. After today the time for doing nothing is over, and with less than one month left in the quarter, and trading volumes running 30% below normal which would guarantee bank earnings in Q3 are absolutely abysmal, the financial system is in dire need of volume, i.e. volatility. Luckily, things are finally heating up as the newsflow (sorry but rumors, insinuations, innuendo, and empty promises will no longer cut it) out of various central banks soars, coupled with key elections first in the Netherlands and then of course, in the US, not to mention the whole debt-ceiling/ fiscal cliff ‘thing’ to follow before 2012 is over. So for those who still care about events and news, here is the most comprehensive summary of the key catalysts over the next week and month, which are merely an appetizer for even more volatile newsflow in October and into the end of the year.
From SocGen and DB:
Data wise the key release will be the ISM manufacturing on Tuesday and the payrolls/unemployment report on Friday, the latter will be critical to any FOMC decision next Thursday. In Europe, we will get the final PMI manufacturing revisions today and the same for services on Wednesday. Euroland PPI (Tues), Euroland retail sales (Wed), Euroland Q2 GDP second estimate (Thurs), German factory orders (Thurs), and German/French trade data (Fri) are the other key releases.
Key events in September:
-3 September (today): EU parliament debates Banking Union.
-Early September: Troika leaders arrived in Athens to begin the final phase of the review programme but it may take a few weeks before a report is ready.
-4 September (tomorrow): ISM manufacturing.