Polling Analysis Week of September 8-14, 2012

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According to Fox News, 45% of registered voters (42% of Independent registered voters) think the country is better off than it was four years ago. 49% (52% of Independents) say it is not. When it comes to their own personal situation, 42% of registered voters (40% of Independents) say they are better off. 43% (44% of Independents) say they are not.

President Obama: Average approval from early to mid-September was 49% according to RealClearPolitics. Average disapproval was 47.3%. (Last week’s average, which covered mid- to early September, was 47.5%. Average disapproval was 48.8%)

Here are the polls released this week on Presidential job approval:

• ABC/Washington Post: 49% of adults approve, up from 43% in September 2011, and 45% disapprove, down from 53% one year ago.
• ARG: 47% of likely voters approve and 48% disapprove.
• DailyKos: 47% of registered voters (37% of Independent registered voters) approve and 48% (54% of Independents) disapprove.
• Democracy Corps: 49% of likely voters approve and 48% disapprove.
• Economist: 48% of adults approve and 49% disapprove.
• Fox News: 48% of registered voters approve, up from 43% in September 2011. 48% of registered voters disapprove, down from 51% one year ago. Among Independent registered voters, 47% approve and 47% disapprove.
• Ipsos/Reuters: 50% of adults approve, up from 47% in September 2011, and 46% disapprove, down from 48% one year ago. Among Independents, 39% approve, down from 42% in September 2011, and 48% disapprove, up from 43% one year ago.
• UPI: 45% of registered voters approve and 44% disapprove.
• Zogby: 51% of likely voters (48% of Independent likely voters) approve and 47% (50% of Independents) disapprove.

Gallup tracks President Obama’s job approval on a weekly basis. Last week’s average (Aug. 27-Sept. 2, 2012) showed 44% approved and 47% disapproved. The latest weekly numbers available (Sept. 3-9, 2012) showed 50% approve and 44% disapprove. Last year at this time (Aug. 29-Sept. 5-11, 2011), 43% approved and 49% disapproved.

Rasmussen conducts a daily tracking poll. One week ago (Sept. 7), 46% approved and 54% disapproved. On Sept. 14, approval was 48%; disapproval was 52%. Last year at this time, the President’s approval was 45% and his disapproval 54%.

Congress: Average approval for early July to mid-August was 13.8%, according to the RealClearPolitics average. Average disapproval was 79.2%. (Last week’s average, which covered early July to late August, was 13.8%. Average disapproval was 79.2%)

Here are the polls released this week on Congressional job approval:

• Economist: 9% of adults approve and 69% disapprove.

Right Track/Wrong Track: According to the RealClearPolitics average, which covered mid-August to mid-September, 35.2% think the country is headed in the right direction while 59.5% think it is headed in the wrong direction. (One week ago, the right track average, which covered mid-August to late September, was 32%. The wrong track average was 62.8%.)

Here are the polls released this week on the direction of the country:

• DailyKos: 41% of registered voters (32% of Independent registered voters) think the country is moving in the right direction while 53% (61% of Independents) think it is moving in the wrong direction.
• Democracy Corps: 39% of likely voters think the country is headed in the right direction and 55% think it is headed in the wrong direction.
• Economist: 34% of adults think the country is headed in the right direction and 53% think it is headed in the wrong direction.
• Ipsos/Reuters: 39% of adults think the country is headed in the right direction, up from 25% in September 2011, and 55% think it is headed in the wrong direction, down from 68% one year ago.
• Rasmussen: 37% of likely voters think the country is headed in the right direction and 57% think it is headed in the wrong direction.
• Zogby: 34% of likely voters (28% of Independent registered voters) think the country is headed in the right direction and 54% (56% of Independents) think it is headed in the wrong direction.

ISSUE SPECIFIC
American Dream:
According to Rasmussen, 47% of Americans think America’s best days are still ahead, up 15 points over last month and the highest level of optimism since early 2010. Only 37% of likely voters now believe America’s best days are in the past. 16% are not sure.

Budget Deficit & Spending:
According to Fox News, when asked which of two scenarios they prefer, 61% of registered voters (the same number of Independents) think it is better to pay off the national debt right now even if it would be harder for them and their families. 25% (20% of Independents) think it would be better to pay it off later even if it means future generations will be responsible.

According to Rasmussen, 53% of likely voters think the auto bailouts were good for the United States, up from a previous high of 47% in May. Only 36% now believe those bailouts were bad for the country. 11% are not sure.

According to the Economist, only 9% of adults believe the budget deficit is the top issue facing the country – the economy (40%), Social Security (12%), and health care (10%) received a higher percentage. Still, 58% of adults say the issue is a “very” important one to them.

President Obama approval on the issue:

• Economist: 39% of adults approve and 52% disapprove.

Economy & Jobs:
According to Gallup, its “Economic Confidence Index surged to -18 for the week ending Sept. 9, up 11 points from -29 the prior week. This puts the index near the high point for the year after 2 1Ž2 months when, weighed down by continued high unemployment, the index had languished well below -20.”

According to Fox News, 36% of registered voters (41% of Independent registered voters) think the economy is still in a recession and could get worse; 44% (42% of Independents) say it is still in a recession, but getting better; 10% (the same number of Independents) think the recession is over, but another one could be coming; and 7% (5% of Independents) think the recession is over and the economy is recovering.

According to the Economist, 27% of adults think the economy is getting better; 40% say it is getting worse; and 29% say it is staying the same.

According to the Economist, 40% of adults believe the economy is the top issue facing the country. 82% of adults say the issue is a “very” important one to them.

President Obama approval on the issue:

• ABC/Washington Post: 45% of adults approve, up from 36% in September 2011, and 53% disapprove, down from 62% one year ago.
• ARG: 45% of likely voters approve and 50% disapprove.
• Economist: 34% of adults approve and 50% disapprove.

Health Care:
According to Rasmussen, 50% of adults favor repeal of the 2010 health care law; 44% oppose.

View of Government:
According to ABC/Washington Post, 53% of adults think government programs do more to interfere with Americans’ lives than they do to improve. 40% believe the opposite and say government programs do more to help.

According to ABC/Washington Post, 53% of adults believe government programs make it harder for small businesses to succeed. 35% believe the opposite and say government programs help small businesses to succeed.

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