Update on Key Senate Races #MESen #MASen #MTSen #NVSen #WISen #CTSen #VASen #FLSen #INSen #AZSen

Driving The Discussion….

Yesterday, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus was on ABC’s This Week, where he expressed his confidence that the GOP will take back the U.S. Senate.  Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus expressed confidence Sunday morning that Republicans can win control of the Senate this November, even as polling shows Democrats have recently seized momentum in some key races.  “I’m very confident we can take the Senate,” Priebus said on ABC’s “This Week With George Stephanopoulos.”

In Maine, Politico’s Morning Score previews – MAINE SENATE-NRSC ENGAGES KING: Things are heating up in Maine. Angus King is reportedly holding an 11 a.m. press conference in Portland tomorrow to attack outside money generally and the NRSC’s statewide ad that went up Friday specifically (watch: http://goo.gl/1xJ1S ). State and national Republicans plan to pre-empt that presser with releases highlighting key questions for King. One of their talking points will be that their ad highlights people who live in the area affected by his wind farm project while King’s ad features actor Sam Waterson, who doesn’t live in Maine. They’ll also draw attention to reports he was in DC to raise money from Democratic lobbyists last week.

• Meanwhile, Republican nominee Charlie Summers writes in the Portland Press Herald about how onerous regulations and higher taxes are hurting America’s small businesses. This all confirms what Mainers already know: We are in the midst of one of the slowest economic recoveries in history, and our nation is on the wrong path. The policies coming out of Washington and this administration simply are not working. Clearly we need to go in a new direction. We’ve tried Washington’s way, now let’s try the Maine way — the small-business way. The Maine way preserves middle-class tax cuts. Raising taxes on anyone in this economy is a bad idea, but hiking taxes on middle-class Mainers would be devastating.

• And Summers met with the Portsmouth Herald editorial board where he discussed the importance of working across party lines to get things done for the United States.  Charlie Summers, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate from Maine, said he sees himself as in the long line of Maine senators from Margaret Chase Smith to George Mitchell to Olympia Snowe. “At the end of the day, your responsibility is to move forward. That means working with people on both sides of the aisle,” he said.

In Massachusetts, the Boston Globe reports that former Democratic Mayor Ray Flynn joined Scott Brown on the campaign trail this weekend. In a Senate race that has turned on issues of class and authenticity, Flynn, a figure inextricably linked with blue-collar South Boston, personifies an important, if arguably dwindling, bloc of voters that Brown needs to capture. On Saturday, Flynn joined Brown as the senator shook hands at Castle Island.

• Meanwhile, the Globe reports that Brown has a new ad up reminding voters of his bipartisan record.  In another new television ad, Senator Scott Brown again takes to his truck, this time emphasizing the theme of bipartisanship, while continuing his push for women voters.  The latest 30-second spot, which will begin airing Monday, features Brown driving to the Shrewsbury home of Diane Gilfoy-Henry, an unemployed single mother, for a conversation at her kitchen table.

• Finally, Morning Score also reports - After months of positive bio spots, Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown will go on the air with an ad that highlights the firestorm over Democrat Elizabeth Warren identifying herself as a Native American to employers. It ends with a devastating clip from a TV interview. The reporter asks, “Is there anything else that’s going to come out about you that we don’t already know?” Warren, trying to be funny, responds, “You know, I don’t think so. But who knows?” The Brown campaign notes that Warren went negative first, running two ads attacking his record, and that this Native American stuff matters. A campaign strategist flags a Suffolk Poll from last week that showed the third word most associated with Warren is “liar”: http://goo.gl/aA4Cz. Dave Catanese reported over the weekend that the race is entering a new, more negative phase: http://goo.gl/w9Ini.

In Montana, the Associated Press reports that a new Mason Dixon Poll has Denny Rehberg leading liberal U.S. Senator Jon Tester.  A new poll has found that Republican U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg has a 3-point advantage over incumbent Democrat Jon Tester for the U.S. Senate.  A poll commissioned by Lee Newspapers of Montana found that 48 percent say they’ll vote for Rehberg while 45 percent support Tester. One percent said they’ll vote for Libertarian Dan Cox and 6 percent are undecided. 

• Meanwhile, Politico’s Burns & Haberman report that the NRSC is up in Montana with a new 60-second ad casting Sen. Jon Tester as a foe of farmers and ranchers due to his votes on the estate tax.  The commercial packs more of a personal punch than other Republican advertising in the state, and departs from what has been a pretty narrow script of knocking Tester over the Affordable Care Act and other national GOP staples. This spot features a rancher named Turk Stovall, explaining that his father’s death could put his family’s property at risk due to the “death tax.”

In Virginia, the New York Times reports that George Allen continues to highlight the Obama Administration’s failure to address devastating defense cuts.  Just outside the gates of the storied Quantico Marine Base, George Allen, the Republican nominee for a Senate seat from Virginia, sat down in the offices of a moving van company with more than a dozen defense contractors from his state last Monday to listen to them fret over government spending cuts.  Mr. Allen has made opposition to the bipartisan deficit reduction law of 2011 the centerpiece of his campaign. … “I personally could never imagine voting for something so devastating to our national security and jobs in Virginia,” said Mr. Allen, a former senator seeking to regain the seat he lost six years ago to Jim Webb, a Democrat, who is retiring.

In Connecticut, the Hartford Courant reports that former Governor Jodi Rell, Senator Susan Collins and Senator Lisa Murkowski kicked off the “Women for Linda” rally on Saturday.  M. Jodi Rell, the state’s enormously popular former governor, said people often confuse her with Republican U.S. Senate candidate Linda McMahon.  In fact, Rell joked, she offered to fill in as McMahon’s double at parades and other campaign events.  While McMahon declined that offer, she enlisted Rell and two moderate Republican senators, Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, in her drive to win over Connecticut’s women voters. The three women were the featured speakers at a “Women for Linda” rally McMahon held Saturday afternoon at a Norwalk hotel.

In Wisconsin, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus told ABC’s This Week that former Governor Tommy Thompson would defeat liberal Madison Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin.  [Priebus] added that the marquee race in his home state of Wisconsin favors the GOP nominee, former governor Tommy Thompson.  “I know that Tommy’s going to win here in Wisconsin. He is a legend. It’s like Harley-Davidson, Miller Lite, Tommy Thompson. He is a brand. He’s going to win.”

• Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that Governor Thompson greeted President Obama’s visit on Saturday, by reminding him of his job-killing record.  “Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin and President Obama ran on a message of hope and change, but four years later the stark reality of our nation’s economic state is setting in,” Thompson said.  Thompson said the campaign stop at the Summerfest grounds in which Baldwin is expected to appear with Obama “only further contrasts the choice families in Wisconsin and across the country will have to make on Election Day.” 

• Columnist Christian Schnedier writes in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel about Tammy Baldwin’s hypocritical campaign.  Yet Baldwin’s undying romance with special interests is the stuff of legend. Baldwin pretends that no video of her exists among the throngs of public employees in the Wisconsin Capitol during the height of the recent collective bargaining conflict. There was Baldwin, bullhorn in hand, fighting to protect what might be the state’s strongest special interest from Gov. Scott Walker’s reforms. Indeed, government unions have shown their gratitude, with AFSCME recently purchasing nearly $1 million in television ads supporting her.

In Florida, the Miami Herald reports that Connie Mack brought his pro-jobs bus tour to Gainesville and Tallahassee.  Republican U.S. Senate candidate Connie Mack began the first of a weeklong bus tour Saturday, stoking the college crowds at tailgate events starting in Gainesville, where the the candidate’s Gators were playing the Kentucky Wildcats and ending in Tallahassee, where the Seminoles play the Clemson Tigers.

• Meanwhile, the Orlando Sentinel reports that Connie Mack continues to highlight liberal Democrat Bill Nelson’s ties to President Barack Obama.  In recent days, both campaigns have switched to more issues-oriented commercials — and their long-term strategies are becoming clearer. Mack, behind in most polls, is trying to portray Nelson as more liberal than Floridians think, and to link him to President Barack Obama. …”Nelson has turned into a senator that says one thing to the people of Florida and then does another in Washington, D.C., as a liberal in lock step with Obama,” Mack said in an interview last week.

In Nevada, the Las Vegas Review-Journal reports that on Thursday, Dean Heller will debate embattled Congresswoman Shelley Berkley’s failed record.  Nevada’s U.S. Senate race gets real on Thursday.  Republican Sen. Dean Heller and his Democratic challenger, U.S. Rep. Shelley Berkley, will face off in their first televised debate in what’s sure to be a clash of both substance and style. … Heller, in turn, will try to pin Berkley to the wall by highlighting all the times she supported President Barack Obama’s unpopular policies, from backing the $800 billion stimulus bill that critics say failed to revive the economy to voting for his signature health care law, which trimmed $700 billion in Medicare spending over 10 years

• Meanwhile, Heller’s campaign is up with a new ad reminding voters of Berkley’s flailing campaign.  Seven-term Congresswoman Shelley Berkley’s latest attack ads about fictitious scandals are a pathetic attempt to distract from her own ethics problems.  In the latest ad from Dean Heller, you don’t have to take just our word for it:

In Indiana, the Evansville Courier & Press reports that Richard Mourdock received another business endorsement.  Republican U.S. Senate hopeful Richard Mourdock picked up another business endorsement last week, earning the backing of the Indiana Manufacturers Association. Pat Kiely, the president of the group, announced the endorsement in a statement Thursday. “Indiana’s efforts are being stifled because of the lack of a strong and coordinated pro-business effort at the federal level. We believe that Richard Mourdock will provide the leadership needed to benefit all Hoosiers,” he said. Mourdock’s campaign touted the move, adding it to a list that already includes the state and national Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Businesses.

• Meanwhile, conservative Human Events reminds Hoosiers that Senator Dick Lugar is supporting Mourdock’s bid.  “Yes, the senator is supporting Treasurer Mourdock,” Lugar press secretary Andy Fisher told us Friday. “On the night of the Friday election (when Mourdock defeated Lugar by a margin of 3-to-2), he said he would vote for him in November.”  Fisher also pointed out that, in July, Mourdock “was introduced by the senator to a luncheon of Republican senators.”

In Arizona, Jeff Flake penned an op-ed for the Arizona Daily Star reminding Arizonans that he’ll fight to fix our broken tax code.  First and foremost, the federal government needs to reform the tax code and eliminate burdensome regulations that hamper economic activity. So long as the U.S. has the largest corporate tax rate in the world, manufacturers will relocate their factories and plants overseas and new businesses will choose to incorporate in other countries. It’s tough for manufacturers to survive when they are literally being regulated out of business by the federal government. In order for manufacturers to thrive in the U.S., they need a pro-growth tax and regulatory environment.

• Finally, the Arizona Republic reported that Richard Carmona was in recently in Washington raising money from his liberal friends.  Arizona Senate candidate Richard Carmona is attending a Democratic fundraiser in Washington this morning, according to The Hill, a move that some Republicans say is a sign he’d rubber-stamp Obama’s agenda. “Rubber-stamp,” if you haven’t been following, is the GOP’s favorite phrase for Carmona.    

In Nebraska, the Omaha World-Herald reports that Deb Fischer is leading liberal Democrat Bob Kerrey by 16 points.  The margin was even worse for Kerrey when the poll was narrowed to likely voters, with the former governor and two-term senator trailing Republican State Sen. Deb Fischer by 16 percentage points — 56 percent to 40 percent.

In New Mexico, the Alamgordo Daily News reports that Heather Wilson brought her pro-jobs campaign to Alamgordo.  U.S. Senate candidate Heather Wilson speaks with Alamgordo Flower Co. owner Margaret Brabson in her store Friday. Wilson also spoke to a group of small business owners at nearby at Print Plus. She is seeking the soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat left by outgoing U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman.

In Hawaii, the Associated Press reports that former Governor Linda Lingle will get 5 times to debate Mazie Hirono’s failed record for Hawaii.  Hawaii’s U.S. Senate candidates Mazie Hirono and Linda Lingle have settled on five debates before the Nov. 6 elections.  Campaigns for the Democrat Hirono and Lingle, a Republican, jointly announced on Wednesday that the schedule would include four televised debates, starting with an Oct. 8 debate on KHON-TV.  The candidates will debate Oct. 16 on KITV-TV, Oct. 18 on PBS Hawaii and Oct. 22 on Hawaii News Now.
In Michigan, the Livingston Daily Press & Argus reports that Pete Hoekstra is reminding voters that liberal U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow is the worst senator the state of Michigan has ever had.  In the coming weeks, the battle for the White House could take a backseat in Michiganders’ minds as one of the most contentious U.S. Senate races in recent history draws to a close.  Two-term U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Lansing, faces challenger and former U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Holland, on the Nov. 6 ballot. U.S. Senate terms are six years long.  Hoekstra, who won an equally contentious GOP primary for the nomination in August, is making the case that Stabenow is “the worst senator Michigan has ever had,” as stated in his most recent ad.

In Pennsylvania, Politics PA reports that Tom Smith is closing the gap against liberal Senator Bob Casey.  Republican Senate hopeful Tom Smith still trails Bob Casey, but his race is closer than the presidential contest in Pa. … It’s the first time in 2012 that any pollster has shown the Senate campaign narrower than the presidential in numbers released the same week.