Weekly Polling Analysis September 29-October 5, 2012

POLLING ANALYSIS
September 29-October 5, 2012

MUST READ:
According to Quinnipiac, 40% of likely voters (38% of Independent likely voters) think the federal government should be doing more to help while 52% (56% of Independents) think it is doing too much.

President Obama: Average approval from late September to early October was 49.8% according to RealClearPolitics. Average disapproval was 47.6%. (Last week’s average, which covered mid- to late September, was 49.9%. Average disapproval was 47.3%)

Here are the polls released this week on Presidential job approval:

• ABC/Washington Post: 50% of adults approve, up from 46% in early October 2011. 46% disapprove, down from 54% one year ago.
• ARG: 48% of likely voters approve and 48% disapprove.
• DailyKos: 47% of registered voters approve (42% of Independent registered voters) and 49% (50% of Independents) disapprove.
• Economist: 44% of adults approve and 52% disapprove.
• GWU/Politico: 48% of likely voters approve and 49% disapprove.
• NBC/WSJ: 49% of registered voters approve and 48% disapprove.
• NPR/Democracy Corps: 50% of likely voters approve and 46% disapprove.
• Quinnipiac: 48% of likely voters (44% of Independent likely voters) approve and 49% (52% of Independents) disapprove.

Gallup tracks President Obama’s job approval on a weekly basis. Last week’s average (Sept. 17-23, 2012) showed 49% approved and 45% disapproved. The latest weekly numbers available (Sept. 24-30, 2012) showed 48% approve and 45% disapprove. Last year at this time (Sept. 26-Oct. 2, 2011), 41% approved and 50% disapproved.

Rasmussen conducts a daily tracking poll. One week ago (Sept. 28), 48% approved and 51% disapproved. On Oct. 5, approval was 50%; disapproval was 48%. Last year at this time, the President’s approval was 42% and his disapproval 56%.

Congress: Average approval for early August to mid-September was 13.8% according to the RealClearPolitics average. Average disapproval was 79.6%. (Last week’s average, which covered early August to mid-September, was 13.8%. Average disapproval was 79.6%)

Here are the polls released this week on Congressional job approval:

• Economist: 9% of adults approve and 72% disapprove.

Right Track/Wrong Track: According to the RealClearPolitics average, which covered late September, 37.5% think the country is headed in the right direction while 56.5% think it is headed in the wrong direction. (One week ago, the right track average, which covered early- to mid-September, was 38.5%. The wrong track average was 55.3%.)

Here are the polls released this week on the direction of the country:

• ABC/Washington Post: 38% of adults think the country is headed in the right direction and 60% think it is headed in the wrong direction.
• Economist: 33% of adults think the country is headed in the right direction and 54% think it is headed in the wrong direction.
• NBC/WSJ: 40% of registered voters think the economy is headed in the right direction and 53% think it is headed in the wrong direction.
• NPR/Democracy Corps: 39% of likely voters think the country is headed in the right direction and the 55% think it is headed in the wrong direction.
• Rasmussen: 37% of likely voters think the country is headed in the right direction and 55% think it is headed in the wrong direction.

ISSUE SPECIFIC

American Dream:
According to Quinnipiac, 40% of likely voters (36% of Independent likely voters) think the country is better off than it was four years ago. 45% (47% of Independents) think it is worse off and 15% (16% of Independents) think it is the same.

According to Quinnipiac, 25% of likely voters (26% of Independent likely voters) think the their family is better off than it was four years ago. 34% (37% of Independents) think it is worse off and 41% (37% of Independents) think it is the same.

According to Rasmussen, 23% of adults believe today’s children will be better off than their parents. 59% disagree, and 18% are undecided.

According to Rasmussen, 47% of adults say it’s possible for anyone in the United States who wants to work to find a job. 41% say that is not the case while 12% are not sure.

According to Rasmussen, 31% of adults believe it is still possible for anyone living in America to work hard and get rich. 50% don’t think that’s possible anymore, but 19% are undecided.

Budget Deficit & Spending:
According to ABC/Washington Post, 28% of adults would say the 2009 stimulus helped the country’s economy; 27% would say it hurt; and 43% would say it made no difference.

According to the Economist, 11% of adults believe the budget deficit is the top issue facing the country – the economy (37%) received a higher percentage. Social Security was tied. Still, 60% of adults say the issue is a “very” important one to them.

President Obama approval on the issue:

• Economist: 36% of adults approve and 54% disapprove.
• GWU/Politico: 41% of likely voters approve and 56% disapprove.

Economy & Jobs:
According to NBC/WSJ, 57% of registered voters think the economy is recovering and 39% think it is not recovering. According to NPR/Democracy Corps, 46% of likely voters think the economy has bottomed out and is improving; 21% think it is at the bottom but not yet imrpoving; and 29% think it has not yet bottomed out and will get worse.

According to Gallup, its “Economic Confidence Index averaged -19 in September, up from -27 in August and nearly matching the -17 seen in May, the highest monthly reading since the start of Gallup Daily tracking in 2008.”

According to Rasmussen, 49% of likely voters think America as a nation is weaker now than it was in late 2008. Only 29% believe the country is stronger today; 18% consider it about the same.

According to ABC/Washington Post, 2% of adults say the economy is in excellent shape; 16% say it is in good shape; 42% say it is in not so good shape; and 39% say it is in poor shape. According to Quinnipiac, 0% of likely voters (1% of Independent likely voters) say the economy is in excellent shape; 17% (the same number of Independents) say it is in good shape; 38% (36% of Independents) think it is in not so good shape; and 43% (46% of Independents) think it is in poor shape.

According to ABC/Washington Post, 52% of adults think the government should pursue policy that reduce the wealth gap; 43% said it should not.

According to the Economist, 29% of adults think the economy is getting better; 45% say it is getting worse; and 22% say it is staying the same. According to Quinnipiac, 39% of likely voters (36% of Independent likely voters) think the economy is getting better, 34% (35% of Independents) think it is getting worse, and 26% (29% of Independents) think it is staying the same. According to NBC/WSJ, 44% of registered voters think the economy will get better over the next 12 months; 13% think it will get worse and 35% think it will stay the same.

According to the Economist, 37% of adults believe the economy is the top issue facing the country. 81% of adults say the issue is a “very” important one to them.

President Obama approval on the issue:

• ABC/Washington Post: 47% of adults approve, up from 35% in early October 2011. 61% disapprove, down from 54% one year ago.
• ARG: 46% of likely voters approve and 51% disapprove.
• CNN: 49% of adults approve, up from 45% in late September 2011. 48% disapprove, down from 52% one year ago. Among Independents, 42% approve and 52% approve today.
• Economist: 42% of adults approve and 51% disapprove.
• GWU/Politico: 46% of likely voters approve and 52% disapprove.
• NBC/WSJ: 46% of registered voters approve and 51% disapprove.
• NPR/Democracy Corps: 51% of likely voters approve and 47% disapprove.

Health Care:
According to Rasmussen, 52% of adults favor repeal of the 2010 health care law; 42% oppose.

Regulation:
According to ABC/Washington Post, when given two choices, 52% of adults said the bigger problem facing the nation was the wealth gap. 42% said overregulation.

Taxes:
According to ABC/Washington Post, when told some of the people who don’t pay taxes – seniors on Social Security, students, the disabled – 39% of adults said these people should at least pay some income tax. 57% said it is fair that they do not.

View of Government:
According to ABC/Washington Post, 4% of adults are enthusiastic about the way government works; 25% are satisfied; 44% are dissatisfied; and 27% are angry.

According to ABC/Washington Post, when given two choices, 51% of adults think government programs do more to help the poor become more dependent on assistance while 43% say they are more likely to just give people help getting back on their feet. When the same question was asked about the unemployed, 42% said government programs make the unemployed more dependent while 53% said they simply help the unemployed get back on their feet.

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