Insiders betting on a market decline

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Corporate insiders are — by at least some measures — even more bearish now than they were a month ago.

And that should worry the bulls a lot, since — as I wrote in early September — their behavior then was already as bearish as it had been at the stock market’s high in late April. ( Read my Sept. 5 column, “More bad news — this time from insiders” )

To be sure, the stock market didn’t decline in September, notwithstanding the insiders’ selling.

But, since historically the insiders have been more right than wrong, it seems risky to bet that the market will continue to escape the bearish implication of their behavior.

Consider an index of insider behavior calculated by the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, published by Argus Research, which is based on the ratio of shares sold by insiders to shares bought. Last week, according to the latest issue of the Vickers service, this ratio for NYSE-listed issues stood at 5.13-to-1. The comparable ratio in early September was 5.97-to-1.

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