From TPM:

U.S. Senate — Dean Heller (R; incumbent) and Shelley Berkley (D)

SurveyUSA interviewed 1,600 Nevada adults Oct. 3-8, 2012. Of the adults, 1,373 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 1,222 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day.
(Margin of Sampling Error: +/-2.9%)
U.S. Senate poll – October 2012
Previous U.S. Senate poll – Aug. 23, 2012

if you were filling out your ballot right now, would you vote for (choices rotated) Dean Heller, the Republican? Shelley Berkley, the Democrat? Or some other candidate?

	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race
		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/ Other
Dean Heller (R)	47%	51%	43%	42%	47%	48%	53%	45%	50%	51%	14%	43%	53%
Shelley Berkley (D)	39%	36%	41%	37%	37%	41%	40%	37%	40%	35%	69%	41%	32%
Other	8%	8%	8%	11%	7%	7%	6%	9%	6%	8%	5%	6%	8%
Undecided	6%	5%	7%	9%	8%	5%	2%	9%	4%	5%	11%	10%	7%
Likely Voters	100%	52%	48%	24%	28%	28%	19%	52%	48%	61%	8%	20%	11%

	Phone		Party Affiliation			Tea party member		Ideology			Union member		Military/veteran
	Cell Phone	Landline	GOP	Dem	Ind	Yes	No	Cons.	Mod	Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No
Dean Heller (R)	33%	51%	88%	13%	50%	80%	44%	83%	37%	14%	47%	48%	58%	41%
Shelley Berkley (D)	41%	38%	6%	73%	27%	13%	42%	11%	46%	71%	44%	38%	33%	42%
Other	6%	8%	3%	6%	15%	6%	8%	4%	9%	8%	8%	7%	5%	9%
Undecided	20%	2%	3%	9%	7%	1%	7%	2%	8%	7%	1%	7%	5%	7%
Likely Voters	24%	76%	33%	40%	25%	8%	90%	32%	40%	19%	20%	78%	38%	62%

	Education			Income			Region
	HS	Some Coll	Coll	<$40k	$40k-$80k	>$80k	Las Vegas	Rest of Clark Co.	Washoe County	Rest of Nevada
Dean Heller (R)	43%	48%	47%	40%	48%	51%	46%	43%	52%	61%
Shelley Berkley (D)	38%	37%	42%	42%	36%	40%	41%	40%	39%	28%
Other	10%	9%	6%	9%	7%	7%	11%	7%	6%	5%
Undecided	9%	7%	5%	9%	8%	2%	2%	10%	3%	5%
Likely Voters	19%	42%	39%	32%	42%	26%	23%	48%	16%	13%

	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race
		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/ Other
Favorable	28%	28%	28%	21%	26%	32%	33%	24%	32%	25%	56%	26%	25%
Unfavorable	48%	53%	41%	47%	47%	45%	51%	47%48%	51%	17%	47%	50%
Neutral	19%	15%	24%	26%	21%	16%	13%	23%	15%	19%	23%	19%	20%
No Opinion	5%	4%	6%	5%	5%	7%	3%	5%	5%	5%	4%	7%	4%
Likely Voters	100%	52%	48%	24%	28%	28%	19%	52%	48%	61%	8%	20%	11%

	Phone		Party Affiliation			Tea party member		Ideology			Union member		Military/veteran
	Cell Phone	Landline	GOP	Dem	Ind	Yes	No	Cons.	Mod	Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No
Favorable	29%	27%	7%	52%	17%	12%	30%	9%	33%	52%	36%	26%	26%	30%
Unfavorable	40%	50%	77%	19%	57%	73%	45%	75%	41%	21%	44%	49%	55%	43%
Neutral	24%	18%	11%	24%	22%	8%	21%	11%	22%	23%	16%	20%	14%	22%
No Opinion	7%	5%	5%	5%	4%	7%	4%	5%	4%	4%	4%	5%	5%	5%
Likely Voters	24%	76%	33%	40%	25%	8%	90%	32%	40%	19%	20%	78%	38%	62%

	Education			Income			Region
	HS	Some Coll	Coll	<$40k	$40k-$80k	>$80k	Las Vegas	Rest of Clark Co.	Washoe County	Rest of Nevada
Favorable	25%	26%	32%	32%	27%	28%	28%	30%	26%	19%
Unfavorable	40%	52%	46%	40%	51%	51%	47%	44%	52%	55%
Neutral	26%	16%	19%	21%	19%	18%	18%	20%	20%	19%
No Opinion	9%	5%	3%	7%	4%	3%	6%	6%	2%	7%
Likely Voters	19%	42%	39%	32%	42%	26%	23%	48%	16%	13%

	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race
		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/ Other
Favorable	38%	43%	32%	31%	37%	40%	45%	34%	42%	40%	18%	37%	40%
Unfavorable	35%	34%	35%	32%	33%	38%	37%	33%	37%	33%	53%	38%	28%
Neutral	21%	18%	24%	28%	22%	18%	14%	25%	16%	21%	16%	18%	27%
No Opinion	7%	5%	9%	9%	8%	5%	4%	9%	4%	6%	12%	8%	5%
Likely Voters	100%	52%	48%	24%	28%	28%	19%	52%	48%	61%	8%	20%	11%

	Phone		Party Affiliation			Tea party member		Ideology			Union member		Military/veteran
	Cell Phone	Landline	GOP	Dem	Ind	Yes	No	Cons.	Mod	Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No
Favorable	24%	42%	70%	13%	37%	72%	35%	69%	30%	12%	40%	37%	47%	32%
Unfavorable	37%	34%	9%	59%	30%	11%	37%	12%	40%	60%	36%	35%	29%	38%
Neutral	30%	18%	18%	18%	28%	15%	21%	16%	24%	19%	18%	22%	18%	23%
No Opinion	9%	6%	3%	11%	5%	2%	7%	3%	7%	9%	6%	6%	6%	7%
Likely Voters	24%	76%	33%	40%	25%	8%	90%	32%	40%	19%	20%	78%	38%	62%

	Education			Income			Region
	HS	Some Coll	Coll	<$40k	$40k-$80k	>$80k	Las Vegas	Rest of Clark Co.	Washoe County	Rest of Nevada
Favorable	31%	38%	40%	30%	40%	41%	39%	32%	42%	53%
Unfavorable	39%	32%	36%	40%	33%	32%	31%	37%	39%	26%
Neutral	19%	23%	20%	21%	21%	22%	21%	24%	16%	17%
No Opinion	11%	6%	5%	10%	6%	5%	9%	8%	3%	4%
Likely Voters	19%	42%	39%	32%	42%	26%	23%	48%	16%	13%

	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race
		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/ Other
Dean Heller (R)	43%	48%	38%	37%	43%	45%	49%	40%	47%	46%	13%	43%	48%
Shelley Berkley (D)	38%	36%	40%	39%	34%	40%	39%	36%	40%	34%	73%	40%	32%
Not Sure	19%	16%	22%	24%	23%	15%	11%	23%	14%	20%	14%	16%	20%
Likely Voters	100%	52%	48%	24%	28%	28%	19%	52%	48%	61%	8%	20%	11%

	Phone		Party Affiliation			Tea party member		Ideology			Union member		Military/veteran
	Cell Phone	Landline	GOP	Dem	Ind	Yes	No	Cons.	Mod	Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No
Dean Heller (R)	29%	48%	82%	12%	44%	84%	39%	80%	31%	14%	44%	43%	54%	36%
Shelley Berkley (D)	43%	36%	6%	71%	27%	12%	41%	11%	47%	66%	41%	38%	32%	43%
Not Sure	28%	16%	12%	18%	29%	4%	20%	9%	22%	21%	14%	19%	14%	21%
Likely Voters	24%	76%	33%	40%	25%	8%	90%	32%	40%	19%	20%	78%	38%	62%

	Education			Income			Region
	HS	Some Coll	Coll	<$40k	$40k-$80k	>$80k	Las Vegas	Rest of Clark Co.	Washoe County	Rest of Nevada
Dean Heller (R)	37%	45%	43%	35%	44%	50%	43%	39%	47%	56%
Shelley Berkley (D)	39%	36%	41%	41%	38%	39%	34%	43%	38%	25%
Not Sure	24%	19%	16%	25%	19%	11%	22%	18%	15%	19%
Likely Voters	19%	42%	39%	32%	42%	26%	23%	48%	16%	13%

	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race
		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/ Other
Dean Heller (R)	41%	48%	35%	41%	38%	41%	47%	40%	43%	42%	17%	45%	48%
Shelley Berkley (D)	37%	35%	38%	35%	34%	40%	38%	34%	39%	34%	64%	38%	30%
Not Sure	22%	17%	27%	24%	28%	19%	15%	26%	17%	24%	19%	17%	22%
Likely Voters	100%	52%	48%	24%	28%	28%	19%	52%	48%	61%	8%	20%	11%

	Phone		Party Affiliation			Tea party member		Ideology			Union member		Military/veteran
	Cell Phone	Landline	GOP	Dem	Ind	Yes	No	Cons.	Mod	Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No
Dean Heller (R)	29%	45%	75%	12%	44%	78%	38%	74%	31%	17%	43%	41%	52%	35%
Shelley Berkley (D)	36%	37%	6%	68%	28%	14%	39%	10%	46%	65%	42%	35%	30%	41%
Not Sure	35%	18%	19%	20%	28%	9%	23%	16%	23%	18%	15%	24%	18%	24%
Likely Voters	24%	76%	33%	40%	25%	8%	90%	32%	40%	19%	20%	78%	38%	62%

	Education			Income			Region
	HS	Some Coll	Coll	<$40k	$40k-$80k	>$80k	Las Vegas	Rest of Clark Co.	Washoe County	Rest of Nevada
Dean Heller (R)	36%	44%	40%	35%	42%	46%	41%	38%	43%	53%
Shelley Berkley (D)	35%	32%	42%	36%	35%	40%	37%	39%	38%	26%
Not Sure	29%	24%	17%	29%	23%	14%	22%	23%	19%	22%
Likely Voters	19%	42%	39%	32%	42%	26%	23%	48%	16%	13%

	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race
		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/ Other
Dean Heller (R)	45%	52%	37%	45%	43%	45%	46%	44%	46%	47%	23%	42%	51%
Shelley Berkley (D)	26%	25%	27%	25%	22%	27%	31%	23%	28%	22%	53%	30%	21%
Not Sure	30%	23%	37%	30%	35%	28%	23%	33%	26%	31%	24%	28%	28%
Likely Voters	100%	52%	48%	24%	28%	28%	19%	52%	48%	61%	8%	20%	11%

	Phone		Party Affiliation			Tea party member		Ideology			Union member		Military/veteran
	Cell Phone	Landline	GOP	Dem	Ind	Yes	No	Cons.	Mod	Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No
Dean Heller (R)	30%	49%	73%	19%	49%	73%	42%	70%	39%	20%	44%	44%	49%	42%
Shelley Berkley (D)	26%	26%	5%	50%	16%	9%	27%	10%	28%	50%	35%	24%	26%	26%
Not Sure	45%	25%	22%	32%	35%	17%	31%	20%	33%	29%	21%	32%	25%	32%
Likely Voters	24%	76%	33%	40%	25%	8%	90%	32%	40%	19%	20%	78%	38%	62%

	Education			Income			Region
	HS	Some Coll	Coll	<$40k	$40k-$80k	>$80k	Las Vegas	Rest of Clark Co.	Washoe County	Rest of Nevada
Dean Heller (R)	36%	42%	50%	36%	44%	55%	46%	40%	52%	51%
Shelley Berkley (D)	32%	24%	26%	29%	24%	26%	25%	30%	21%	16%
Not Sure	33%	34%	24%	35%	32%	19%	29%	30%	27%	32%
Likely Voters	19%	42%	39%	32%	42%	26%	23%	48%	16%	13%

	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race
		Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian/ Other
Dean Heller (R)	41%	47%	35%	39%	40%	41%	45%	39%	43%	43%	12%	41%	52%
Shelley Berkley (D)	30%	29%	31%	25%	31%	31%	33%	28%	32%	27%	62%	28%	27%
Not Sure	29%	24%	34%	36%	29%	28%	21%	32%	25%	30%	27%	31%	20%
Likely Voters	100%	52%	48%	24%	28%	28%	19%	52%	48%	61%	8%	20%	11%

	Phone		Party Affiliation			Tea party member		Ideology			Union member		Military/veteran
	Cell Phone	Landline	GOP	Dem	Ind	Yes	No	Cons.	Mod	Lib	Yes	No	Yes	No
Dean Heller (R)	29%	45%	74%	12%	45%	69%	38%	70%	32%	16%	43%	41%	51%	35%
Shelley Berkley (D)	31%	30%	5%	60%	16%	13%	32%	9%	37%	56%	36%	29%	27%	32%
Not Sure	40%	25%	21%	28%	39%	18%	30%	21%	31%	28%	21%	30%	22%	32%
Likely Voters	24%	76%	33%	40%	25%	8%	90%	32%	40%	19%	20%	78%	38%	62%

	Education			Income			Region
	HS	Some Coll	Coll	<$40k	$40k-$80k	>$80k	Las Vegas	Rest of Clark Co.	Washoe County	Rest of Nevada
Dean Heller (R)	37%	43%	40%	34%	41%	47%	43%	37%	45%	48%
Shelley Berkley (D)	30%	29%	33%	32%	31%	30%	31%	32%	30%	20%
Not Sure	33%	28%	27%	35%	28%	22%	26%	31%	25%	32%
Likely Voters	19%	42%	39%	32%	42%	26%	23%	48%	16%	13%

Statement of Methodology

About the Poll: This poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT.

All respondents heard the questions asked identically. The pollster’s report includes the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted, the number of respondents who answered each question and the theoretical margin of sampling error for each question. Where necessary, respondents were weighted using the most recent U.S. Census estimates for age, gender, ethnic origin and region, to align the sample to the population. In theory, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents with home telephones been interviewed with complete accuracy.

There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than sampling error. These include: the difficulty of interviewing respondents who do not have a home telephone; the refusal by some with home telephones to be interviewed; the order in which questions are asked; the wording of questions; the way and extent to which data are weighted; and the manner in which specialized populations, such as likely voters, are determined.

It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these and other factors. Research methodology, questionnaire design and fieldwork for this survey were completed by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.