Zero Hedge – Toward the end of every year Goldman Sachs discloses what its top 10 or so thematic trades for the next year are. This is not to say that these trades perform better than others, or at all: the firm’s top trades for 2011 and 2012 were largely a dud. But for those interested which way Goldman is axed (i.e., always the opposite of what it recommends by definition) here are the first Top Trades for 2013 as just released by the Squid.
From Goldman Sachs
Longer-term structural views are expressed in our Top Trade recommendations. These are typically managed with a wide stop, and assessed on the basis of whether the fundamentals continue to support the medium-term investment theme.
- Stay short AUD/NOK, opened at 5.90 on 03 Dec 2012, with a target of 5.00 and a stop on a close above 6.35, currently at 5.88.
- Stay long risk (sell protection) on the CDX High Yield on-the-run index, opened at 506bp on 04 Dec 2012, with a spread target of 450 and a stop on a close above 550, currently at 516.
- Go long the Commodity Carry Basket (Crude, Corn and Base), opened at 100 on 05 Dec 2012, with a target of 112 and a stop on a close below 94, currently at 100.
Some detail on the Commodity Carry Basket:
The Commodity Carry Basket: Crude, Corn and Base (CCB)
To take advantage of this increasing carry in key commodity markets, we recommend opening an equally weighted position in GSCI-style rolling front month indices in petroleum, corn and, for base, copper less aluminum.
Crude: long the S&P GSCI® Petroleum Index
Corn: long the S&P GSCI® Corn Index
Base: long the S&P GSCI® Copper Index against short the S&P GSCI® Aluminium Index*