I started this as a small quibble post in a thread reply to gamecock's "Schooling Krauthammer" http://www.theminorityreportblog.com/comment/reply/4748#comment_form post but got so long winded with it that I decded to make the post stand on it's own...
I don't think McCain would beat Obama without Palin and in that I have a small but significant quibble with both you and Thompson...I think he was on his way to a blood bath..before he did two major things...and this supports the bulk of your post though it looks at the paradigm from a different angle.
McCain has tipped the playing board with two things...
First, his unapologetic conservatism put on full display at Saddleback was phase one of the game changer IMHO...it didn't seal the deal...but it loosened people like me from their anti McCain death grip. Up to that point he continuously pushed us away with his AGW, Amnesty, and other rhetoric...and I can't tell you how infuriated hard line Conservatives in my sphere of influence were becoming with the standard line that "if you don't vote for McCain you're voting for Obama"... The Party did itself no favors by beating Conservatives about the head with that...and it would do well to avoid similar clubbings in the future!
Sadly, Up until that point, he was working on restoring that opposition to him from hard line conservatives again with the talk of Lieberman as second on the ticket to the point where I was in a total defeatist funk by Thursday of last week. In hindsight I think he may have been playing coy by floating those baloons to distract from the real choice. Regardless...doing so made the contrast of Sarah vs Liberman as VP that much more stark whether intentional or not. Regardless, his pick of Sarah has finally solidified the Party behind him and irrevocably placed me in the Pro McCain camp thus ensuring an enthusiastic vote in November...He's driven me from a defeatist funk that was deeper than I felt in 1992 or 1996 to a point where I can't wait to vote in November. In fact I'm so excited I can't stand myself!
My position on this both confirms and compliments Gamecock's post in that not only is it true that Democrats lose when they put their liberalism on display for all to see...the opposite is truer if you will...that Conservatives win when they put their conservatism on full display for all to see!
What I'm saying in short is...McCain's former strategy would have made the election close but I believe he would have ultimately lost because when the voters are given a choice between two Democrats...the Democrat wins.
Palin is the line of distinction that locks in the line of succession and solidifies McCain as the true Conservative in this race...locking in what I believe will be victory in November!
I close with one of my pet peeves of the moment...Congressional Republican's would do well to learn this lesson and use it in the next 60 days and maybe end the funk voters are on concerning them...were they to do so...could it be that they could turn out the Democrats who are in control of a Congress with a 9% approval rating? I'd at least like to see them try instead of just laying on the tracks waiting for the train to hit them!










"Conservatism works every time it is tried."