If You Thought Exit Polling Got It Wrong In 2000 and 2004 Just Wait Until 2008
The aftermath of the 2000 Presidential Election in Florida might well be remembered fondly for its civility, following the 2008 election results. The bitterness that has gripped this country since the United States Supreme Court was forced to intervene and stop the voting, has never left this presidency.
Every Democrat opposition to every issue can be traced back to "Selected, Not Elected." From the beginning of his presidency, President Bush has been viewed by the left as illegitimate. And nothing will change in 2008 with the "surprise" election of Sen John McCain to be the 44th President.
Understand, with the MSM cheerleaders working overtime, Sen Obama should be able to take a narrow polling lead into November. With each and every criticism turned into a referendum on racism, it will take a brave voter to tell a pollster that he or she intends to vote against the new Messiah. And, if pre-election voting is skewed by "The Wilder Effect," the exit-polling will be even further from the truth.
While the Washington Post whistles past the graveyard, running stories that the Wilder Effect is no longer a factor in this current election cycle, or that it never, in fact really existed, human nature does not change overnight.
Hopkins shows how any "Wilder effect" that existed in the early 1990s has disappeared, countering the notion that there is a systematic bias in such polls. Instead, he argues that the effect that did exist resulted from the particularities of those earlier elections. Those dynamics could return in this year's election, but it is far too simplistic to assume a problem.
Where Hopkins and the Washington Post go wrong, is that in past elections minority candidates tried to downplay racial differences, while Sen Obama is basing his entire campaign on the premise that a vote against him is a vote for Jim Crow Racism. While other candidates have attempted to prevent a referendum on race -- Sen Obama seeks to make this campaign about nothing else.
And so, when a Democrat or Independent voter exits that voting booth and finds himself confronted with an exit-poller who asks him for whom he voted -- there is but one answer that voter can give. "I voted for Obama."
Remember, it was faulty exit-polling that convinced the MSM to call Florida for Vice President Gore in 2000, causing voters in the Florida panhandle and many Western State to stay home. It was the results of those faulty exit polls that, to this day, have convinced the Netroots that VP Gore rightfully won that election, setting off the past eight years.
Again, in 2004, early exit-polling, skewed by who and where it was done, convinced many voters that Sen Kerry was going to walk away with that election. Again, because of faulty polling, the Netroots believe another election was stolen, this one by Diebold voting machines.
This election will set off a whole new Conspiracy Theory when all is said and done, as Sen McCain carves out a 42-state, 5 million vote advantage. Still, as lopsided as the eventual results will appear, EXIT-POLLING will demonstrate that Obama had a clear advantage in state after state after state. Close polling states will appear to be Obama victories in exit polls. Wide McCain Red States will appear, upon exit polls, to be much closer than in reality.
And so, another cycle of Derangement Syndrome will be launched. Sen John McCain, 44th President of the United States, and former darling of the left, will suddenly be vilified as the embodiment of evil, and incidentally, VP Dick Cheney's illegitimate son.
Here is looking forward to the next eight years.
...that if McCain wins in November the same litany of smears and accusations of fraud and stolen elections from 2000 onward will bellow from liberal Democrats like that of cries from children.
Better to be prepared now for this possible outcome... keep archived all of the BDS, smears and accusations to beat them about the head and neck with, if this occurs.