Mike DeVine TMR Legal Editor [Formerly legal editor for The (Decatur, GA) Champion]
The red clay of Georgia (pictured)
Fifty-eight and counting for the Democratic Party in the United States Senate, and should incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss lose to Jim Martin on this Tuesday’s run-off election, only one Republican vote would be required to invoke cloture to end filibusters.
A President Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress would have a blank check to enact most all of their legislative dreams of the past forty years, and, given the economic crisis, pass it all off as “stimulus” no matter how fundamental the changes the new laws may effect.
This column is an update to our front pager last week which suggested that Jim Martin was on his own, as far as getting any personal help on the ground from the President-Elect.
It remains the case that Obama will not take the “Coverdell” challenge and repeat the mistake made by then President-Elect Bill Clinton in his 1992 appearances in a previous Peach State run-off when Republican Paul Coverdell defeated then incumbent Democrat Wyche Fowler.
The Voice
However, Obama did make a radio ad touting Martin as favoring his legislative agenda; Donna Brazile reported on ABC’s This Week Sunday show that all 20+ Obama campaign offices remain open; and that Obama supporters in adjoining states have been encouraged by text message to come help turn out the vote.
So, turnout matters in run-offs, too?
Yes, we finally heard, forty-eight hours before the vote, that yes, turnout matters. DeVine Law has yet to hear an explanation from an “expert” as to how turnout would ever not matter (unless an election is fixed).
Turnout means votes. We decide elections on actual votes, hence, every winner of every election is the one who had more voters turn out for them.
As if.
Gamecock also learned since our last report that Martin has raised and spent more money than Chambliss. The Drive-By dead-tree Media article tries to hide this fact by headlining the supposed ominous news that the Republican raised more money from large donors, but for those Americans that can still do math, the facts are discernible.
Finally, more information from our Astute Political Observer (APO) on the ground somewhere between Douglas and Decatur:
Many Georgia Democrats remain animated to vote against Saxby based on his TV ads (that included an image of Osama bin Laden) six years ago against then incumbent Democrat Max Cleland, especially given Chambliss’ reported student and medical deferments during the Vietnam War. Cleland is a triple amputee due to injuries suffered while serving in that war.
We are also advised that deaths of children abused while under the supervision of the Department of Human Resources (DFCS pronounced dee-fax) while Martin was commissioner have been used by some of his political opponents. Ads have also reported a Martin vote for a “whopping” 30+% tax increase amendment that never became law.
As an attorney that has defended parents as their lawyer and children as Guardian ad Litem before the DFCS equivalent in South Carolina, I never could point to a case where the commissioner was in any way at fault for the errors of case workers.
The tax increase Martin voted for was one cent on the sales tax.
There are many reasons to vote against Martin, but those two are not among them.
Given new data, especially including the news from our APO near the City too Busy to Hate, we have to temper, but not withdraw, our view that Chambliss should pull this election out and keep the state as red as the clay.
Polls show that black turnout (which went 95+% for Martin) will be up to 30% lower than their percentage on Election Day.
The best reasons for voting against Martin were mentioned above: He will be a rubber stamp for the Obama agenda. That will drive GOP turnout and the argument for divided government may persuade some Democrats to pause.
Mike DeVine’s Charlotte Observer, Examiner.com and Minority Report columns
“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson
Granted that it's a special election, still it's hard to think that Chambliss could underperform McCain so badly as to not carry the seat in a 1-on-1 race - especially considering what's on the line.
Leads me to think that if he does go down he probably had it coming.
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Diplomacy is the art of saying 'Nice doggie' until you can find a rock.