Real_Clear Politics has come out with their prediction. They go Obama (338-200).
The question then becomes: Just how wrong is RCP? I would submit that they are probably not as bad as I would like them to be, but still somewhat skewed left this cycle.
That brings up the question: Just how badly skewed? IBD/TIPP; which got 2004 perfect, shows the race at Obama (+2.1). The RCP average has Obama(+7.5).
If we assume RCP is wrong by the full 5.4% that devides these two polls, and then assume they are equally wrong in all states, this would alter the 338-200 prediction as follows....FLorida (27 Evs), Ohio (20 Evs) and Virginia (13 Evs) all currently break towards Obama. Assuming a 5.4% shift in McCain's favor, the map becomes 278-260 Obama.
However, what we don't know yet is how the undecides will break. Let us assume, based upon Senator Obama's past history in the Democratic Primary, that he doesn't close well. This would give Senator McCain a 2-1 edge in these undecideds. The latest RCP numbers read Obama 51.7 - McCain 44.2. This leaves 4.1% of the electorate unaccounted for. If we give 1% to the Barrs and McKinneys, this leaves about 3%. Split these voters 2-1 for McCain, and you get a +1 bump for McCain.
Factor this into the mix, and Senator McCain could get as much as a +6.4% swing in his favor. Do that, and John McCain picks off Colorado for 9 more EVs. At this point, we are deadlocked at 269-269. Then, we go to Maine and Nebraska.
Maine and Nebraska are states that allow their electors to split votes. One district in nebraska is somewhat more purple than the deep red map in nebraska. One district in Maine is slightly more purple than deep blue Maine. Todd Palin has visited that neck of the northeren woods....
In conclusion, barring a catastrophic Democratic meltdown in PA, Barack Obama has a 95% chance of winning. 5% is enough of a chance to vote GOP tommorrow if you are inclined to do so. After all, the New England Patriots had their victory parade planned in advance of last year's Super Bowl.
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