The Delicate Absence of Thunder

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Georgia has now conducted two iterations of Saxby Chambliss’ reelection campaign for the US Senate. One of these two wasn’t like the other. Barack Obama was omnipresent in one. He played tepidly in the second. If the move was studied, President-Elect Obama has sent Speaker Pelosi and Harry What’s-His-Name over in the Senate a pointed message.

Chambliss ran against Jim Martin for what could have been the 59th seat in a Democratic super-majority in the US Senate. Martin wasn’t supposed to have a serious shot at winning on November 4th. This was before McCain-Palin had the wheels fall off and before Obama-Biden grew significant coattails.

To win a Senate Seat from the Great State of Georgia, a candidate has to win 50% +1 vote. This stands regardless of how well the rest of the field fares. Should this blessed event not come to pass; the top two competitors then have a run-off to award custody of the seat.

In the run-up to the general election, (AKA Chambliss-Martin I), Chambliss spent most of August and September polling between 6 and 29 points ahead of Martin and only came in under 50% in one Democratic Party partisan poll. Then Obama began to roll.

As Candidate Obama cut Senator McCain’s double-digit Presidential Election lead in Georgia from double-digits to 5% by Election day, Jim Martin moved closer as well. By Election Day, with a major assist from the events up-ticket, Martin had dragged Chambliss below 50%. This forced the run-off.

After Election Day, and prior to the Georgia run-off, Obama kept his offices open and some campaign staff in Georgia, but most of the circus had left town. There were no endless stalls of Jim Martin t-shirts thronging the Atlanta Underground. In some respects, Barack Obama’s stronger-than-expected showing in Georgia was cultural, rather than simply partisan.

In essence, Barack Obama had left the building prior to the run-off. Absent the Obama presence and the momentous change in history this represented, Jim Martin was just another liberal Democrat attempting to dissemble his way into office in a largely conservative Southern State. Normalcy returned. Martin lost the run-off 57-43.

This one data point suggests that Southern Democrats enjoyed a 10-12 point Baracking of the vote on Election Day. An effect that simply vanished when Obama was no longer present up ticket. This enables Barack Obama to send Nancy Pelosi and Harry What’s-His-Name a not so subtle message without lifting a finger. When N=1, statistical proof doesn’t exactly exist. However, coincidental images speak more loudly than words.

This puts Nancy Pelosi and Harry Whoever in a subservient position to President-Elect Obama. He can help them on Election Day, or he can stay ensconced in the Rose Garden and occasionally triangulate against them to play to moderate voters. It all depends on how much support he feels the Democratic Congress shows to his agenda.

If Barrack Obama felt the need to bring the left wing of his party up short, he may have just subtly done so down in Georgia. It was the delicate absence of thunder that may have been the loudest message sent in the Georgia run-off election.

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Jaded's picture

We need him to be 10 steps to the right of McCain and here's hoping he turns on those Dem's who turned on him!

Whoever has his enemy at his mercy & does not destroy him is his own enemy

Knight_of_the_Mind's picture

Agreed!

Replacing 401k's will be the Obama Hotel CA retirement package...
You can check out any time you like, but you can't afford to leave!

Aaron Gardner's picture

even if Obama is campaigning for some of the D's up for reelection he won't be on the ticket...and therefore his actual effect will be minimal...if played right we should see gains.

"Land of the Free and Home of da Whopper" Peter Griffin...Family Guy

conform and celebrate diversity....or else!!!

Steel-Belted Radial Right Winger

"I'll create 5 million jobs from out of unicorn farts and pixie dust" Justatron paraphrasing Obame

gamecock's picture

on social issues and the big jobs program called turning Americans loose to bail themselves out, we can re-take the senate and maybe the house.

Americans are about to get re-educated re liberals.

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com columns

“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson

gamecock's picture

Obama would not have been able to make up the landslide margin of Martin’s defeat merely by appearing within the boundaries of the Peach State. So I’m not so sure how large or subtle a message is being sent. Obama did a radio ad and kept his 25 campaign offices open after all.

See my two columns before the vote (that are eerily reminiscent of still-retired Cockstradamus) here and here

Clearly, Obama has power due to the electoral landslide and the point you make, but Pelosi’s near scoffing dismissal of Obama’s b/r trial baloon and her authoritative tone during the transition indicates she may have some cards to play as well.

maybe she sees what a child Obama looks like when asked a tough question at a news conference.

Too bad she can’t see what a buffoon she looks like at hers.

Good column bro.

Mike DeVine’s Examiner.com columns

“One man with courage makes a majority.” - Andrew Jackson