And so we have before us the Pelosi waterboarding kerfuffle (which I am dubbing “Prevari-gate” because “Watergate” was already taken).
Who wins if Nancy Pelosi is weakened politically?
Barack Obama. Pelosi will give him whatever he wants, without so much as a whimper.
Note that CIA Director Leon Panetta has come down on the side of the Bush CIA on this one. He wouldn’t do that without White House approval. They want Pelosi out of there.
So who wins if Pelosi resigns?
Barack Obama. Obama will have his pick for Speaker, which would probably be long-time Rahm Emanuel ally House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer.
House Republicans, agitating against Pelosi because they don’t like her very much, are going to give Obama just the Speaker he wants. That’s good and bad: the new Speaker will be a tough foe for Congressional Republicans, but at least he will be an adult.
In the long run, it will all work out, because Obama-Hoyer-Reid triumvirate will ultimately bring about electoral defeat for the Democrats. But not before they screw the country up in some very bad ways.
... although I've been advocating for her removal the point is, as you've succinctly laid out, that Obama is in a win-win here. I'd like to see here removed from office completely but she might just slide by this whole mess without much of a scathing!