Gas Prices- The Quiet October Surprise!

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During the summer, the media paid a great deal of attention to the spike in energy prices. Predictably, we were barraged with the standard stories of oil consumer hardship and obscene oil company profits.

Crude oil prices cratered during the past month, with gasoline prices following. If you think the same amount of attention would be paid to that, you would be wrong. But it is a very signficant development.

Gas has become much more affordable in the heartland, including critical swing states.

The green areas on the map (see the detailed map at http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_gastemperaturemap.aspx) show gasoline below $2.50 per gallon. Even in the red and orange areas, gas prices have still declined significantly. Consider the impact of a $2.00 per gallon decrease on someone who uses 40 gallons per week - hardly an unusual amount. That's $80 per week, $4,160 per year. Consumers were gouged for this amount on the gas price upswing, and they are getting equivalent relief on the downside.

It is my firm belief that the energy spike has been a prime contributor to our recessionary environment, and aggravated the mortgage crisis by vaporizing the disposable income of marginal borrowers.

In the post-bubble environment, consumers are seeing a restoration of that income. This, coupled with their realization that they have an enormous stake in stable energy supplies, has got to be good for John McCain.

Drill here, Drill Now!

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Knight_of_the_Mind's picture

it will cost less to fleee across the border.

Replacing 401k's will be the Obama Hotel CA retirement package...
You can check out any time you like, but you can't afford to leave!

Vladimir's picture

Falling energy prices (good news in the short term) will take the pressure off a new administration to make meaningful change with respect to energy policy.

We've established that energy security (not independence!) is a long term proposition. For example, if Bill Clinton had not nixed ANWR drilling in 1996, it might be producing today.

We can still throw buckets of money at alternatives, but they will have a hard time competing with gasoline if the per gallon price starts with a "2".

Prices are falling now because demand is slack (and the dollar is falling). Demand is slack because $4.00+ gasoline caused some conservation, and because of the perceived slowdown in the economy. Both conditions are transient; demand will come back.

Just as Joe Biden is sure that a President Obama will be "tested", I will make the bold prediction (call me "Vladstrodamus") that before the end of his term, we'll see gas prices that make $4 seem cheap, and Obama will have done nothing to make the situation any better; in fact, we'll be in worse shape than we were in the spring of 2008. Alternatives will be no closer to market, and there will have been no push to expand domestic production.

As the saying goes, the best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The second best time is now. The wisdom of that holds even in times of low energy prices.

streetwise's picture

The downside of price relief is complacency. Even if oil drops to $40, the long term trend is up as the global economy grows.

I'd be careful about assuming the mantle of prophecy, however. Gamecock pecked our last competing prophet to death. It wasn't pretty. :>)

Knight_of_the_Mind's picture

OPEC recently called for a 1.5m b/d cut in production. Who do you believe will cheat on their reduction quota first? I have my eye on Venezuela or Iran....

Replacing 401k's will be the Obama Hotel CA retirement package...
You can check out any time you like, but you can't afford to leave!

Night Twister's picture

Take a look at that conspicuous red square in the middle-left of the country. You can't miss it, it's surrounded by lots of orange, yellow and green.

It's Larimer County, Colorado, home to Colorado State University in Fort Collins (where I live and work).

Maybe we're still being punished for the bake sale...

"After two years in Washington, I often long for the realism and sincerity of Hollywood." -Fred Dalton Thompson

Brian Simpson's picture

to Springfield, MO (the lower left corner of the state with the dark green counties).

  • Lower gas prices
  • A more conservative government
  • Table Rock Lake
  • etc

I’m growing less fond of the St. Louis area more and more.


I think I can say, and say with pride, that we have legislatures that bring higher prices than any in the world. ~ Mark Twain

Vladimir's picture

High state fuel taxes & special gasoline blends.

David Hinz's picture

and one at $2.39. I filled up Sunday at $2.54 because it was such a bargain.