Morning Coffee News Update 06-22-09

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A quick look at news you might have missed from around the world for Monday, June 22, 2009.

Tehran, Iran

Chatham House breaks down the Iranian election fraud by province

In the most detailed analysis yet of the June 12 Iranian election results, Chatham House breaks down the vote by province, convincingly demonstrating the massive fraud necessary to give Mahmoud Ahmadinejad his victory.

In a side by side comparison of the 2009 and 2005 vote, Ahmadinejad this time would have had to become the most popular politician in Iranian history to make the gains that he showed. Historically negative voting blocks all suddenly changed to give him his massive victory -- statistically unlikely.

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Example: Ahmadinejad won 765,000 votes in Hamedan province. In 2005, he received 195,000. To win the additional 570,000 votes, Ahmadinejad would have to have won all 218,000 voters who didn’t vote in 2005, all 175,000 Rafsanjani voters, and nearly a quarter of the 322,000 voters who cast their ballots for the reformists. Keep in mind that most, if not all, of the non-voters in 2005 would be people disgusted with and cynical about voting at all, the vast majority of whom would probably have cast their ballots for Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, or Mohsen Rezai this time, if they voted at all.

In province after province, the data hold.

In some of the "conservative provinces, what would be considered Ahmadinejad strongholds, the vote was more than 100 percent.

“The Guardian Council should use every possible means to build trust and convince the protestors that their complaints will be thoroughly looked into. A majority of people are of the opinion that the actual election result is different from what was officially announced. The opinion should be respected and a line should be drawn between them and the rioters and miscreants," said Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani. "Although the Guardian Council is made up of religious individuals, I wish certain members would not side with a certain presidential candidate.”

Meanwhile government agents and military patrol the streets of Tehran, as protesters stayed inside on Sunday. At night however, they took to the rooftops shouting their disdain for the stolen election and a massive workers strike is planned, although the exact time is not being discussed as yet to avoid government intervention.

Washington, DC

US trade with Iran nearly doubled in first five months of 2009

The export of wheat, soybeans and medical supplies to Iran, all exempt from US trade sanctions, nearly doubled in the first five months of 2009, to $96 million, up from $51 million last year, and $27 million in 2007.

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Obama has proceeded carefully when commenting on uprisings in Iran over President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed re-election, saying he shared the world's "deep concerns" but that it wouldn't be productive "to be seen as meddling."

In allowing exports of necessities such as grain and medical supplies, the U.S. has tried to send a message to the Iranian people that it is a friend to them and has no interest in punishing them for their government's policies. At the same time, by helping Iran feed and provide medical care to its population, Washington can't help but provide an unintentional benefit to the Tehran government.

Government officials say that the public should not read too much into the increased numbers, as crop failures in Iran have caused that country to need to import more food for its people.

London, England

Goldman-Sachs to pay record bonuses to top executives

Goldman-Sachs, the banking giant that still owes the US government more than $10 billion from the Troubled Assets Relief Program [TARP] will be paying out the biggest bonuses in the bank's history. Last year the bank gave out more than $1 million to at least 973 employees in bonuses, and this year promises to top that.

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Staff in London were briefed last week on the banking and securities company's prospects and told they could look forward to bumper bonuses if, as predicted, it completed its most profitable year ever. Figures next month detailing the firm's second-quarter earnings are expected to show a further jump in profits. Warren Buffett, who bought $5bn of the company's shares in January, has already made a $1bn gain on his investment.

There have been some questions raised in Washington about the close ties of Bernanke and Geithner to Goldman Sachs. And didn't a top Democrat or two in Congress dump all of their stock last fall and jump in bed with Warren Buffett? Shrewd move, that.

Detroit, MI

Lee Iacocca says GM and Chrysler should pay back government loans first

The man knows about government loans. Lee Iacocca, the former CEO of Chrysler, that took more than $1 billion in loan guarantees from the US government in the 1980s to rescue his struggling company, says that GM and Chrysler should pay off their government loans first, to get the government off their back.

“They’re on you day and night. Their oversight is just too extreme,” he said. “That’s why our 10-year loan, we paid it back in three years. We couldn’t stand the government. The bureaucracy kills you.”

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He suggests that Chrysler continue to stick with its best-known vehicles: minivans, Jeeps, the Ram pickup and larger sedans like the Challenger and 300. Fiat, he said, can fill in the smaller end of the lineup with its designs and efficient engines.

Although he likes Marchionne, Iacocca said a marriage to Fiat still faces challenges, including somehow navigating through what he predicts will be another year of recession.

That was then, and now is now. In the 1980s the federal government was reluctant to enter the automobile business and wanted nothing to do with controlling the product line. Today, it will be very difficult for the auto industry to get the government out of the decision making process and meddling in product "development."