Under the Fedora: Red Sox, weak candidates, and Tebow

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One of my memories of the Scott Brown campaign was a day in Boston when President Obama was going to speak. There were two competing crowds one for Coakley one for Brown. At one point some of the Coakley people shouted: “Brown sucks”, the Brown people answered: “Coakely sucks”.

Someone in the crowd took up the chant: “Yankees Suck!” and both groups of Massachusetts citizens joined in, briefly on the same side.

That came to mind because of a decision by the local AM radio station in my City of Fitchburg. They dropped the Red Sox, which might be understandable if they were too expensive, but inexplicably decided to pick up the Yankees.

It has generated a lot of shock in the community, it’s not a high power station so it doesn’t reach NY so my thought was: Why not carry the Braves (Formally of Boston) or even the Pawtucket Red Sox (AAA)?

If the goal was attention, they got it, plus the Sox will play the Yankees a lot of times this year so they will still have those games, but hearing the traditional cry of: Yankees Win Theeeeee Yankees win, after a Yankees victory, is going to really rankle folks around here.

Since my station reaches Fitchburg and my living depends on selling ads to local business’ I say to the local station:

Thanks Guys!

Oh, Thursday night the Redsox beat the Yankees 5-4 on a suicide squeeze in the last of the ninth.

Yeah it’s still preseason, yeah it doesn’t count yet but it’s exactly the type of story that gets a Red Sox fan’s blood running faster.

….

I was at a meet and greet yesterday for GOP candidate Elizabeth Childs who is in a primary against Sean Bielat to face Kennedy in Ma-4

Childs was a Republican who left the party over abortion during the 80’s, served in the Romney administration and came back to the party to run in this race.

I’m reminded of something Cynthia Yockey said to a very shocked elder conservative woman in September of 2010 when she introduced herself as “A conservative lesbian”:

“Obama has created a lot of conservatives”

Just how many we will find out this November.

At the same meet and greet I met a reader who had been discussing me around the dinner table and referred to me as a “celebrity”.

I’ve had people excited some very excited to meet me but I’ve never been called a celebrity before.

I had a spirited discussion with a pair of GOP activists who are absolutely convinced that Obama will be re-elected at that same event, they claimed “people” were afraid of Santorum and disliked Romney but would stick with Obama, no argument I made about the actions of democratic candidates around the country would move them but both they and I at the time missed the most sure sign that they were wrong.

There is no issue more contentious than abortion, just ask the Susan G. Koman foundation, yet here is a person who so believed in Abortion that she left the GOP who has not only come back to the party but is running for Congress as a Republican?

Yeah tell me how Obama has this race in a lock.

Of course the president is getting some help from the Romney campaign, specifically Eric Fehrnstrom whose “Etch-a-sketch” comment is devastating to the campaign. As I said this week:

The Obama campaign will be using this as a prop till November. They will be giving out etch-a-sketches at every school they stop at. The DNC will be donating Etch-a-sketches to children’s charities in every city that the president visits, democratic candidates for congress will be holding them and questioning their republican counterparts over it. This actually has to potential to turn the general election around. Of course lucky for Romney if he wins the nomination he will still be facing Obama.

This is going to be poison in the general election, it is something that can be remembered understood by people who don’t follow politics and is perfect late night fodder.

No matter how much Santorum gets hit for his statement concerning Romney v Obama Fehrnstorm’s unusual gaffe (unusual because he is a pretty good campaign guy) will hurt right through November because everyone believes it’s true.

Social conservatives already don’t trust Romney, if he loses enough of them it will make November a lot closer than it should be.

Interestingly enough both Romney and Obama are trying to appear more conservative than they are, that should tell the political types something about where the country actually is.

……..

One more election note. We keep hearing from the media about how bigoted southerners are, particularly southern Republicans (never mind the fact Bull Connor was a Democratic National Committeeman from Alabama ). We hear how Romney as a Mormon is going to have troubles in the general election in the south and on Morning Joe when they discussed the Trayvon Martin shooting the talk was all about the south and race.

In the Southern primaries there were four candidates, one livelong Catholic (Santorum), one Catholic convert with a history of affairs (Gingrich), one Mormon with social conservative issues (Romney), and one mainline protestant who has a history of “interesting” newsletters with a nasty racial component. (Paul)

If the liberal meme on the south was true Ron Paul should have ruled Dixie. Instead Paul has finished 4th in every southern primary.

The idea of 2 Catholics and a Mormon beating the mainline protestant in every southern election would be big news, and the media would be all over it, except it contradicts a meme that is oh so precious to them and that just isn’t allowed.

It reminds me of something from a conference call with Santorum, Rick talked about the “I don’t care about the unemployment rate” line that the Romney campaign used to club him with the MSM’s help. Santorum was asked a question about it on the trail by a voter. He called on the embedded reporters who had been on the trail with him for months and had heard his speeches over and over again and bluntly asked if what he said was any different than what he had been saying for months. They agreed it was not. As Santorum put it:

“They know this is a complete distortion …“

But the media narrative trumps all.

All over the TV networks the talk is Trayvon Martin and outrage over his killing. From what I’ve heard of that case the outrage might not be misplaced but it seems to me it is pretty selective. Take a look at this chart from the CDC:

As I said on my own blog:

 

People are rightly concerned about the shooting of young Mr. Martin and Florida needs to take a good long look at this case. If Zimmerman’s self-defense claim is as specious as it seems they should go after him big time, but those figures I quoted aren’t just stats, they represent actual individual people murdered. Their lives were no less dear to their mothers than Trayvon Martin was to his, yet they haven’t generated any million hoodie marches.

I have sons near the age of Mrs. Martin. I can’t imagine what she’s going through and I don’t begrudge her one bit of her anger or desire for justice for her son. It seems to me however, that the activists and media personalities so outraged today, had none for the young black men who’ve been slaughtered in cities for years:

 

Until those deaths have political value to the left, the mothers of those young men will be left to cry alone.

 

Finally Tim Tebow is in the news again. Denver jumped on board the Payton Manning bandwagon and signing him to a big contract and dealing away Tim Tebow to the Jets for a 4th round pick.

I can understand the signing of Manning, he is a Superbowl winning quarterback and like all Football contracts the big money is not guaranteed. It’s certainly not a bad risk even with the injury bug on Manning back.

But dumping Tebow for a 4th round pick seems foolish. Manning would be a valuable tutor to Tebow and if Manning proved fragile Tebow could jump right back into the fray. A 4th round pick seems a small return for the Broncos. As for the Jets Sanchez doesn’t have the title under his belt that Manning does meaning one stumble and the Jets would be under a lot of pressure to bench him with Tebow in the wings bargain price for him or no.

I suspect John Elway didn’t have a whole lot of respect for Tim Tebow as a Quarterback, but he said something interesting during the press conference:

“Tim Tebow’s a great kid. If I want someone to marry my daughter, it’s him,”

The blaze called it: possibly the greatest compliment ever. As a father there is nothing I’d rather hear someone say about one of my sons.

And if Tim Tebow is anything like the person I take him for, he’d agree.

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Republican Donors in Limbo

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From Roll Call:

The extended Republican presidential primary has left many GOP donors paralyzed — unsure of whether to invest in the upcoming battle against President Barack Obama or focus on Congressional races.

Party insiders increasingly believe that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will win the nomination, a development that would likely open the donor spigot for the general election. But a victory by former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) or ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.) would probably have the opposite effect. A GOP money machine skeptical of the party’s White House prospects would likely spend instead on House and Senate races as the best hope for a November gain.

According to interviews with a dozen mostly Washington-based Republicans, including Capitol Hill aides, fundraisers, strategists and K Street operatives, the GOP’s Congressional candidates and national campaign committees would prefer to avoid such a financial windfall, believing the party’s best chance of holding the House and flipping the Senate is to field a strong, well-funded presidential campaign that runs a sophisticated voter-turnout operation.

“This is a discussion that has been happening in all corners of the GOP consultant class,” a well-placed Republican said Monday.

There are some Republican strategists less concerned with the nominee than the fact that the GOP primary is diverting attention from Obama’s record and allowing the president to rebuild politically. They worry that a stronger Obama could help Democrats downticket.

Republicans are additionally concerned that they cannot produce a coherent, unified election-year message until their primary produces a nominee for them to rally around.

Muth’s Truths: Super Tuesday’s Super Lessons

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By Chuck Muth

Three take-aways from the results of Super Tuesday’s elections:

1.)  Mitt Romney can’t win conservatives, Rick Santorum can’t win the general electorate…and Ron Paul can’t win either.  As such, if Romney is the nominee, conservatives will sit on their hands – the way they did for McCain, Dole and Ford.  If Santorum is the nominee, independents will flock back to Obama.

2.)  Romney isn’t winning the nomination; he’s buying it.  If he and his super-PAC weren’t outspending his opponents by margins of two-to-one, three-to-one and four-to-one, he’d have been out of this race a month ago.  Not that he’s doing anything wrong; but as Newt Gingrich has been pointing out, if outspending your opponents is your campaign plan, it’ll fail epically against the $1 billion+ Obama warchest.

3.)  The Republican establishment, and some in the media, are now calling for a hasty end to the nominating process.  Make no mistake; this isn’t because the nominating process is weakening the GOP’s anointed candidate, Romney, but because the process is exposing just how weak he already is.

Let’s face it; Romney’s strongest wins thus far have been in liberal Northeast states, because he’s a liberal Northeast Republican.  With the exception of Florida, he literally can’t buy a Southern state, where the GOP’s conservative base is strong.  And in Midwest states – such as Iowa, Michigan and Ohio – states with a lot of independent and swing voters – he has lost or only barely won.

As for Santorum – yes, he’s winning over Democrats…but only in Republican “open” primaries.  Come November, those Democrats – who have been trying to sow trouble in the GOP nomination fight – will dance with the one who brung ‘em, Barack Obama.

Worse, if Santorum is the nominee, instead of talking about gas prices, unemployment, the economy and national defense – issues where Obama is weak – we’ll be fighting over contraception, abortion and gay marriage – all important issues to social conservatives, but issues that’ll drive away independents and swing voters.

So…death by hanging, or firing squad?

As the nominating process moves into a string of conservative Southern states, it’s highly unlikely Romney will do well. Santorum is positioned to take most of them – and if he stumbles, Gingrich is poised to step into the breach.  (Disclaimer: I’m a Gingrich supporter/adviser).  And Ron Paul, will continue to win delegates.

All of which means that while none of the three not-Romneys will be able to win the nomination outright, it’s increasingly possible that, combined, they could deny Romney the ability to win the nomination outright.  Which means the ultimate decision will be made at the convention in August.

All for the right to take on the worst president since Jimmy Carter.  Republicans, how in the hell did you let this happen?

In Break from GOP, Sen. Dean Heller Goes Green

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From Politico:

Sen. Dean Heller is taking the road less traveled among GOP candidates: The Nevada Republican says he’s better for clean-energy interests than his chief Democratic rival.

In recent email blasts, Heller’s campaign has ripped Rep. Shelley Berkley, Heller’s likely Democratic opponent come November, for voting against several renewable-energy amendments to the GOP’s energy and infrastructure package. (Most Democrats voted against those amendments, which set aside some requirements for environmental reviews, as well as against the larger package.)

Another email from his campaign said Heller “has long fought to bring a variety of sources of renewable energy to Nevada.”

Heller’s message puts him in contrast with other Republicans, who are distancing themselves from any past support for clean energy and instead are embracing an “all of the above” message that stresses expanded domestic drilling.

Geography has a lot to do with it, some observers say.

“There is bipartisan agreement, like it or not, in Nevada that, hey, it’s sunny here a lot of the time and so we have to do something with renewables,” said Jon Ralston, a television host and political columnist for the Las Vegas Sun.

Supporting renewable energy is virtually a requirement for Nevada politicians, he added, although that can lead to sticky situations for a Republican. “Now, of course, that brings us to the question of what does that really mean that you support it? How far do you go with tax credits, tax incentives, before you get called a crony capitalist by the Republicans who love to use Solyndra as their talking point? It’s a difficult issue for Heller.”

GOP focus on control of Congress amid presidential doubts this fall

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NOTE: “Strengthening our conservative House majority is the Speaker’s top priority, but he also recognizes what Republican control of the Senate would mean advancing measures to cut spending, repeal ObamaCare and help remove barriers to private-sector job creation. We’re happy to do what we can to help Leader McConnell and his team at the [National Republican Senatorial Committee],” Fritz said.

From The Hill:

The top Republicans in the House and Senate are closely coordinating their efforts aimed at controlling Congress next year by trading lists of 2012 races they have prioritized.

Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) has given $105,000 to senators and GOP candidates running for the upper chamber, while Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) has donated the same amount to House members and candidates.

McConnell told The Hill, “[Boehner] and I both have contributed to the priorities on each other’s sides.”

The bicameral strategy comes as some high-profile conservatives, including former Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-Texas) and columnist George Will, have suggested that Congress, not the White House, should be the GOP’s focus this fall. That argument has emerged in the wake of President Obama’s improved polling numbers and growing angst on the right with the GOP presidential field.

Republicans need a net of four seats to capture the Senate (three if Obama loses). Boehner, meanwhile, is defending his new majority, which would become a minority if House Democrats pick up a net of 26 seats in November.

Collins & Snowe Rated Least Conservative GOP Senators

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This will come as surprise to exactly no one who’s been paying attention to politics, like ever, but I thought it was interesting that this rating came from the National Journal.

Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe of Maine are the two least conservative Republican senators, according to 2011 vote ratings released this morning by the nonpartisan National Journal

The publication issues its conservative and liberal rankings of members of Congress each year, putting together a composite score based on breaking down key votes on economic, social and foreign policy issues. Collins and Snowe have usually been in the middle of the Senate, among the least conservative Republicans but not as liberal as conservative Democrats.

Of the 47 Senate Republicans, Collins’ conservative rating comes in 47th, while Snowe’s rating comes in 46th.

The Maine twins certainly don’t do Conservatives or Republicans any favors, if any, so it’s good to know there is a primary process in place to, well, replace them… not that I expect that to happen any time soon up there in Maine!

Primary Controversy Prompts Snowe Challenger to Drop out of GOP, Dodge to Run as Indy…

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From Maine Public Broadcasting:

Andrew Ian Dodge says he’s not happy with the way the GOP caucuses were handled and he now plans to run for Sen. Olympia Snowe’s seat as an independent.

Andrew Ian Dodge says he’s giving up his Republican primary challenge against Sen. Olympia Snowe. Dodge, a former tea party activist, told the Lewiston Sun Journal that he’s dropping out of the Republican Party and will run for the Senate seat as an independent.

Dodge, 43, told the paper he decided to leave the party because he wasn’t happy with the way the GOP caucuses were handled. He accused state GOP Party chair Charlie Webster of having a “patronizing attitude” toward those who complained.

Some party members were unhappy that Webster declared Mitt Romney the winner of Maine’s non-biding straw poll before all of the votes had been counted. Dodge told the paper he didn’t buy Webster’s explanation that some of the votes had been lost in his e-mail spam folder.

But Dodge was fighting a steep uphill battle against Snowe. He had yet to raise enough money to file a campaign finance report with the Federal Election Commission, the paper reports, and it’s not clear whether he had gathered the minimum 2,000 signatures needed to get on the June ballot. As an independent, Dodge has until June to collect 4,000 signatures to get on the November ballot.

Dodge was one of two candidates who had sought to challenge Snowe in the GOP primary. Scott D’Amboise of Lisbon Falls is now Snowe’s only challenger in the contest.

Senate GOP push for Keystone vote on highway measure

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The Hill.com:

Senate Republicans want to add an amendment to the highway bill that would mandate construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.

GOP lawmakers backing the controlversial oil pipeline plan to file an amendment mandating the project to the Senate transportation package Monday. It is unclear whether the Keystone measure—one of scores of proposed additions to the highway package—will come up for a vote.

The Senate last week began debate on the big transportation programs funding bill.

The move underlines the GOP’s determination to promote the pipeline and attack the Obama administration for rejecting a permit for developer TransCanada Corp. in January. Republicans in both chambers along with the GOP candidates for president have consistently bashed President Obama for his decision to reject the pipeline, which they argue will cost the country jobs.

Keystone XL would bring oil from Alberta’s massive tar sands projects to Gulf Coast refineries. It’s also envisioned to carry oil from the Bakken formation in North Dakota and Montana, where production is booming.

Pipeline backers – including most Republicans, some Democrats, major business groups and several unions – call the project a way to create jobs and boost energy security.