St. Petersburg Times | The Buzz | The Fla Insider Poll: Adam Hasner is early favorite to win GOP Sen nomination

The Times reached out to people who they deemed to be “dozens of smart Florida politicos…the savviest political minds in the state – professional strategists, fundraisers, lobbyists, and grass roots activists” and questioned them about the 2012 U.S. Senate race in Florida. The respondents’ names are listed in the article, but their responses are reported anonymously. Looking over the list, it does include a solid cross-section of known liberals, moderates, and conservatives from all over the state.

More than half of the 79 respondents said Adam Hasner was the most conservative candidate in the race, and 35 predicted that Hasner would win the GOP primary. Most also believe that Bill Nelson is likely to win re-election.

Nelson being tough to beat is a given. A long-time Democrat incumbent who’s already raised millions of dollars and has the direct backing of the White House will definitely be a tough foe. But we’re over a year away from the election, and a lot can happen in that time. Nelson’s road to re-election will be a lot rockier if Obama’s approval ratings continue to tank.

What really intrigues me about these results, however, is these are experienced politicos who know all the candidates, know the Floridian political landscape very well, and when questioned anonymously (i.e., they can answer freely without fear of reprisals from employers, co-workers, clients, etc.), they say that (1) Adam Hasner is the most conservative candidate, and (2) the most likely to win the primary. The results also show that neither Haridopolos nor LeMieux are viewed as very conservative, so that leaves Adam Hasner as the only actual conservative with a chance of beating Nelson.

I agree with my fellow conservative blogger Robert Stacy McCain: “it’s important to unite conservatives behind one candidate,” and Adam Hasner is the best choice.

There’s a reason that conservative leaders like Erick Erickson, Mark Levin, Monica Crowley, Ken Blackwell, Hugh Hewitt, and others are with me on Team Hasner: we believe that the 2012 election is vitally important, and electing strong, principled conservative candidates is our best hope for getting our country back on track.

Adam Hasner official campaign website
Adam Hasner on Facebook
Twitter: @AdamHasner

[Cross-posted at Sunshine State Sarah]

Reports are that Dan Benishek has won the Republican Primary for MI-01 by a single vote.  Just one vote in the unofficial count on the Michigan Secretary of State website separates Dr. Benishek from Jason Allen.

Benishek was polling well against Allen just one week ago, but the race tightened up as the election loomed.  No one suspected this result, however.  Few if any elections in recent history have been this close.  Even the final tally in the 2000 Florida Presidential race was more than 200 votes.  Certainly, the MI-01 vote will be recounted if Allen contests the results, and the vote total may change, but for now Benishek sits atop a single vote victory.

This result reminds us that every single conservative vote will count this November.  2010 could be as historic as 1994, or even more historic than that, if the right elections swing our way.  Or they could be disastrous.  The GOP has, unfortunately, been quite good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  One need only look back at one of the most famous election results in history.

In 1948, an American populace went to bed certain the Thomas Dewey and the Republicans would, after so many tries in the previous 16 years, finally defeat the Democrats and President Harry S. Truman.  Newspapers ran the headline the following day.  The photograph of Truman triumphantly holding up a copy of the Chicago Daily Tribune announcing “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN” is now iconic.

What is often not remembered is that a swing of a few thousand votes in Illinois, Ohio and California could have easily tipped the election in favor of Dewey and changed the course of the 20th Century dramatically.  Thomas Dewey verty truly nearly was the 34th President of the United States.  Just 12 years later in 1960, just 9,000 votes separated Richard M. Nixon and John F. Kennedy in Illinois.  Kennedy lost everywhere in that state except in Chicago.  While Illinois 27 electoral votes were not enough, in themselves, to deliver the electiton to Nixon, the hotly contested vote in Texas (along with its 24 electoral votes) would have.

The Michigan race reminds us that elections are never foregone conclusions.  Even as new media and the polls indicate a historic shift in power this fall, and the old-guard media grudgingly admits that Conservatives have momentum, we cannot become complacent.  We must not allow the hype to let us feel as though one vote won’t matter.

Every conservative we can get to the polls at runoffs in Georgia, primaries in Delaware and Maryland and at the general election in November helps march back the tide of Cap and Tax, Unionization by Intimidation and helps reverse the Health Care Takeover.  Every conservative at the polls is important.  Every vote this year matters.

Especially yours.

Cross-posted at RedState.